— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2013
Michael Thrasher of the Rallings/Thrasher duo has recently surveyed LD performances and he reported that the situation is dire. The headline “Lib Dems Need Resurrection Not Recovery” sums it up.
In many cases in local by-elections the party has seen its vote share has been in low double figures.
The places where they’ve been doing okay have been those where there’s a strong organisational structure in place. This is mostly confined to those places where there’s an MP, they hold the electoral mayoralty or where they’ve got the strength to mount serious challenges.
All told I’d expect about 75 seats to be contested seriously with the sort of intensive high octane campaigning they they are good at. In the other 550-560 seats there will only be a nominal presence.
The consequence is that they could fail to meet the 5% vote threshold for holding their deposit in many seats.The question is how many. The problem here is that there is no easy reference point to assist us.
I like the open-ended level of the 150+ bet and got on that when it was at 9/2.
At GE2010, it should be noted, the LDs were the only party to save all their deposits.
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