As we move another month closer the killer fact for CON remains: LAB’s vote is still buttressed by LD switchers

As we move another month closer the killer fact for CON remains: LAB’s vote is still buttressed by LD switchers

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The Autumn Statement did nothing to budge them We are now within 17 months of the election and the overall situation remains the same. Even if all the 2010 CON voters who’ve moved to LAB returned it would make very little difference to Labour’s majority winning vote share. Those 2010 LD switchers remain. This is the first full parliament where we’ve been able to track voter segments by past vote because the pollsters didn’t start giving us this information until…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. To you lurkers, To Cut A Long Story Short,  why not delurk? It’s True if you delurk, your contributions will be like Gold. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) PMQs: Inspired by Mandela, Cameron wanted to forgive his opponents Red Ed and Redder Ed: Cameron…

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The David Cameron paradox: His “little black book” could form both the CON and LD manifestos

The David Cameron paradox: His “little black book” could form both the CON and LD manifestos

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In an interview with Speccie editor, Fraser Nelson David Cameron gives an interesting insight into how his party will present itself at GE2015 “..The coalition is still strong and radical, he says, ‘but because of what I see as the problems facing Britain — and what I want to do next as Prime Minister — I feel very passionately that I want single party government’. It’s strange, I say, he doesn’t come across as a man held captive by the…

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Is it all about leader ratings and the economic lead?

Is it all about leader ratings and the economic lead?

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Atul Hatwal at Labour-Uncut posted a piece yesterday about Labour’s polling, he had one observation, which stood out, and I decided to investigate if it were true, his observation was this, The fundamentals of politics do not change. Voters generally make their electoral choice on the basis of who they feel is best suited to be prime minister and which party they feel is the most economically competent. No opposition has ever won an election while being behind on both economic…

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Boris must be able to stand for the Tory leadership

Boris must be able to stand for the Tory leadership

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Do the parties need to review their eligibility criteria?   Two things stand out from a quick glance at the odds for the next PM.  The first is that Ed Miliband (8/11, Ladbrokes), is rated about ten times more likely to be next to get the job than anyone else.  That’s not too surprising: he’s secure in his own position, Labour has had a steady lead in the polls for most of the parliament now and a built-in advantage in…

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Ipsos Mori poll on Scotland

Ipsos Mori poll on Scotland

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Ipsos-Mori have published their Scottish Public Opinion Monitor.   @IpsosMORI #IndyRef poll sees YES closing the gap Yes 34% (+3) No 57% (-2) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) December 10, 2013   The fieldwork for this poll was entirely after the publication of the White Paper, and for those wondering if the White Paper had any effect on the electorate, Ipsos-Mori notes The White Paper itself appears to have had a marginal effect on voters’ views. Around one in five (18%)…

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ICM’s phone poll for December sees CON get 3 pc closer

ICM’s phone poll for December sees CON get 3 pc closer

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Women less likely to think there’s a recovery than men ICM gender divide on the recovery Men say by 57% to 38%, that recovery is under way Women say by 46% to 44% that it isn't — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 9, 2013 Two Eds still trailing as best to manage economy ICM finds 39% backing Dave/George to handle the economy best, compared with just 23% who side with Two Eds. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 9, 2013 Regional divide on…

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First full post Autumn poll from Populus online has LAB lead +4 – a different picture from YouGov

First full post Autumn poll from Populus online has LAB lead +4 – a different picture from YouGov

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Top phone pollster, ICM, due out tonight Yesterday I highlighted the Sunday Times YouGov poll – the first full voting intention survey since Osborn’s Autumn Statement on Thursday. That had the CON lead down to 5%. Today we’ve got the first Populus online poll and that, as the chart shows, has things moving in the opposite direction. Tonight I’m hoping for the first phone poll – ICM for the Guardian and later in the week we should have Ipsos-MORI. There’s…

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