Harper Green on Bolton (Lab Defence) Result: Lab 744 (51% -22% on 2012), Con 325 (23% +6% on 2012), UKIP 252 (18%), Green 60 (4%), Lib Dem 53 (4% -6%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 419 (28%) on a swing of 14% from Labour to Conservative since 2012 Elm and Christchurch on Fenland (Con Defence) Result: Con 301 (44%), UKIP 234 (34%), Ind 73 (11%), Lab 51 (7%), Lib Dem 27 (4%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 67…
The Tories have yet to record a lead in any opinion poll this year. The last year this happened was 2002. — Simon (@simonk133) December 19, 2013 I saw this Tweet earlier and thought I’d check it out. It is correct. At some point in every single year from 2003 to 2012 the Tories recorded at least one lead. On two occasions they’ve been level-pegging and this week they got within 2%. What this means electorally we’ll have to wait…
But winning seats matters more than votes In the final local by-elections of the year last night UKIP once again chalked up some impressive vote shares and came within 3 of taking a ward off the Tories in West Sussex – but when it came to seats they continue to struggle. The life-off moment for the party which seriously changed perceptions was on February 28th, the Eastleigh parliamentary by-election following Chris Huhne’s conviction and imprisonment. Starting out in fourth place…
Harper Green on Bolton (Lab Defence) Result of last election (2012): Lab 41, Con 16, Lib Dem 3 (Labour overall majority of 22) Result in ward over last electoral cycle: 2010: Lab 2,302 (45%), Lib Dem 1,203 (23%), Con 903 (18%), Ind 625 (12%), Green 114 (2%) 2011: Lab 1,918 (67%), Con 616 (22%), Lib Dem 326 (11%) 2012: Lab 1,656 (73%), Con 389 (17%), Lib Dem 222 (10%) Candidates duly nominated: Asha Ali Ismail (Lab), Wendy Connor (Lib Dem),…
@IpsosMORI Issues Index has been carried out in same way for 37 yrs and because it's unprompted is widely regarded as best test of salience — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 19, 2013 Main findings in December Ipsos-MORI Issues Index in which people state their concerns unprompted – what's salient pic.twitter.com/Gk2CL6no2T — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 19, 2013 As concerns about the economy subside immigration could soon be biggest issue See Ipsos-MORI December Issues index pic.twitter.com/utB3KKugw7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December…
CON doing better than 2012 In the summer PaddyPower attracted a lot of betting interest with a new market on whether the Tories would over-take Labour in at least one poll before the end of the year. With the pollster packing up for the holidays at the weekend there are just two surveys left to go and unless there is something dramatic it looks as though those who bet at prices tighter than evens are going to have to say…
Following publication of our latest four constituency polls for Alan Bown earlier this week, there has been considerable public discussion of the methodology we used for these polls, including specific criticisms from Anthony Wells of YouGov, Lord Ashcroft and an article by John Rentoul which lists a number of criticisms passed to him by “a Conservative sourceâ€. I would like to use this opportunity to address these criticisms and provide a robust explanation for our choices of methodology. In his…
PaddyPower has put up some more GE2015 single constituency markets including the Cornish seats of Cambourne Redruth which the Tories took off the Lib Dems in 2010. The latest prices are CON 2/5: LD 5/2: LAB 8/1 and UKIP 33/1 As highlighted by Stuart Dickson and others on a previous threads the UKIP option is a good value bet. When it went up it was priced at 40/1 – odds that quickly moved in. What makes this seat particularly interesting…