Lord Ashcroft’s mega poll has UKIP on 16pc – the highest his surveys have ever recorded

Lord Ashcroft’s mega poll has UKIP on 16pc – the highest his surveys have ever recorded

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The latest Lord Ashcroft mega poll has just been published as part of a study on how the Tories could win at GE2015. The poll was carried out online amongst a sample of 8,053 more than a month ago. Unlike the regular YouGov and Populus online polls Lord Ashcroft doesn’t use party ID weighting which tends to depress the UKIP voting numbers. To me it is striking that the 16% UKIP share is very close to tonight’s 17% share from…

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UKIP the only gainers in first voting intention poll of 2014

UKIP the only gainers in first voting intention poll of 2014

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Opinium is the only online survey which does not have any political weighting and tends to show UKIP on the high side. Also coming out tonight is the mega sample Ashcroft poll an a survey for one of the other Sundays. The Ashcroft poll will be reported here at 10pm. Mike Smithson Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble 2004-2014 Follow @MSmithsonPB

You’ve got to drop to 89 on LAB’s target list to find a seat that Tories are betting favourites to retain

You’ve got to drop to 89 on LAB’s target list to find a seat that Tories are betting favourites to retain

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Bookie prices Battersea GE2015 http://t.co/2GdLb7TyQc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 4, 2014 Why’s national GE2015 betting so different from the constituencies? How I miss the commons seats spread betting markets. This is the first election for two decades where this form of betting has not operated. Here the number of seats the parties will get are traded like stocks and shares and the more you are right the more money you make. Alas the reverse was true as well. The…

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Why the markets are bullish about the Tories’ chances

Why the markets are bullish about the Tories’ chances

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Are the polls or the punters wrong? If the polls are to be believed, Labour is on course for a comfortable victory in 2015.  As Mike has pointed out in several related posts over the last few weeks, the voters who backed the Lib Dems in 2010 and have since switched to Labour seem firm in their intention and are more likely to vote than the average.  Add in the effect of UKIP and the fact that Labour needs a…

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Some polling news for Mr Gove to ponder: YouGov finds that LAB has a 41pc lead amongst teachers

Some polling news for Mr Gove to ponder: YouGov finds that LAB has a 41pc lead amongst teachers

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Before GE2010 Ipsos-MORI had LAB 11% ahead with teachers I’ve now got full details of the YouGov poll of teachers which was carried out for the NUT. I should stress that this is a representative sample of teachers in England and Wales with the YouGov using its estabished polling panel. What is strking is how different this compares with an IPSOS-MORI poll of teachers carried out in the led up to GE2010. It found CON 29/LAB 40/LD 23. UKIP barely…

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It would be playing into UKIP’s hands to bar Farage from the debates

It would be playing into UKIP’s hands to bar Farage from the debates

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What message would this send to those already turned off by politics? Judging by comments coming out of the Miliband camp it appears that Labour has decided that it would not work in their favour if they were seen to be black-balling Nigel Farage from the GE2015 leaders TV debates. I’m sure that Clegg and the Lib Dems will take a similar approach so that if Farage isn’t there it will be blamed on the Cameron team. UKIP, of course,…

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The monthly projection from Electoral Calculus sees the LAB majority down from 80 seats to 78

The monthly projection from Electoral Calculus sees the LAB majority down from 80 seats to 78

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Electoral Calculus projection, based on current polls, makes a LAB maj a 78% chance See chart pic.twitter.com/nGlwZunxYt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 31, 2013 It’s LAB 364(+106)/CON 235(-72)/LD 23(-34)/UKIP 0/NAT 9(=) The latet monthly projection from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus sees a slight falling off of the projected LAB majority, The caluclation is based on applying Martin’s polling computation to his seat model and assuming a uniform national swing. The only changes in his polling average are CON+1 and UKIP-1…

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