MEMO to CON MPs who think that an EU referendum is the magic bullet that’ll help them save seats: It isn’t

MEMO to CON MPs who think that an EU referendum is the magic bullet that’ll help them save seats: It isn’t

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Check this YouGov polling – Europe has little salience Quite simply there are too few potential converts Judging by the intensity of many backbench CON MPs over the EU referendum issue you’d have thought that they firmly believe if only they could get this sorted it would be the magic bullet that would ensure their re-election at GE2015. The blunt fact is that it isn’t. For the vast bulk of voters Europe, even those saying UKIP as the chart shows,…

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Shouldn’t our governments govern?

Shouldn’t our governments govern?

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David Herdson’s Saturday Slant George Osborne turned lobbyist this week.  Despite the fact that he is, in theory, one of the most powerful members of the government, his advocacy of an above-inflation increase in the minimum wage carries virtually no weight.  Why?  Because he doesn’t set it – and nor, in effect, does anyone else in the government.  Rises are done on the recommendation of the Low Pay Commission and while ministers can overrule it, doing so defeats the purpose…

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The LDs and LAB the gainers in today’s FOUR new voting intention polls

The LDs and LAB the gainers in today’s FOUR new voting intention polls

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It feels like general election time! I can’t remember a day since the 2010 general election when we’ve had four new Westminster voting intention polls. They are featured in the interactive chart above. Most important is the monthly Ipsos-MORI phone poll which only in October had the Tories and LAB level pegging on 35%. Well it’s very different today with the red team having a 9% lead and the LDs seeing their share jump 4. The big driver of the…

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Why those wanting an EU referendum shouldn’t pin their hopes on Ed Miliband

Why those wanting an EU referendum shouldn’t pin their hopes on Ed Miliband

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@LordAshcroft There's no benefit to LAB in helping close down the issue of Europe which has been so divisive for the Tories. No referendum. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 16, 2014 @MSmithsonPB ..wouldn't bet on that… — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) January 16, 2014 Last night I got into a little Twitter discussion with Lord Ashcroft over Labour and an EU referendum. He was articulating what is a widespread Tory view that EdM will be forced ahead of the election to…

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Local By-Election Result : January 16th 2014

Local By-Election Result : January 16th 2014

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Broadheath on Trafford (Con Defence, elected in 2011) Helen Boyle (Labour) 1,377 votes (44%, +4% on 2011) Brenda Houraghan (Conservative) 1,258 votes (41%, -2% on 2011) Ron George (United Kingdom Independence Party) 234 votes (8%, +3% on 2011) Will Jones (Liberal Democrats) 150 votes (5%, -2% on 2011) Joe Ryan (Green) 67 votes (2%, -3% on 2011) Labour GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 119 votes (3%) on a swing from Con to Lab of 3% since 2011 Current…

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Local By-Election Preview: January 16th 2014

Local By-Election Preview: January 16th 2014

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Broadheath on Trafford (Con Defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Con 34, Lab 25, Lib Dem 4 (Conservative overall majority of 5) Result of ward in last electoral cycle: 2010: Con 2,569 (42%), Lab 1,799 (29%), Lib Dem 1,519 (25%), Green 247 (4%) 2011: Con 1,879 (43%), Lab 1,757 (40%), Lib Dem 307 (7%), UKIP 205 (5%), Green 202 (5%) 2012: Lab 1,662 (46%), Con 1,397 (39%), UKIP 221 (6%), Green 156 (4%), Lib Dem 152 (4%) Candidates…

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Half of those who told YouGov that they’ll vote UKIP in the May Euros supported the Tories at GE210

Half of those who told YouGov that they’ll vote UKIP in the May Euros supported the Tories at GE210

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UKIP only 2% behind LAB amongst those certain to vote UKIP WAS included in YouGov’s opening prompt UKIP WAS included in the opening prompt for YouGov's EP2014 poll & firm indicates possible change for Westminster http://t.co/J61mBrOrCf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 16, 2014