If LAB does come top in the Euros then EdM should send a thank you note to Tony Blair

If LAB does come top in the Euros then EdM should send a thank you note to Tony Blair

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58% of the electorate will have local elections as well on May 22 In all the time that Tony Blair led the LAB party there was only one set of national elections where victory eluded him – the 1999 and 2004 contests for the European Parliament. He didn’t like that in the least and ahead of the 2004 contest he went to extraordinary lengths to win. First he changed what had been the standard practice and decided to put back…

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UKIP is taking SIX times as many votes from the Tories as it is from Labour

UKIP is taking SIX times as many votes from the Tories as it is from Labour

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In no way are the purples as big a threat to LAB as CON There’s consistent talk at the moment of UKIP being a bigger threat to LAB than CON. This is a point that Mr Farage wants to hammer home on virtually every occasion. Yet quite simply this is not supported by the data. Just look at the chart above based on data from the month’s biggest poll, the Populus/FT March aggregate with a sample of 16,424 Because of…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’re wanting some Happy Mondays, why not relax and spend the night on PB Nighthawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk and Step On to PB as a poster. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Can Farage convert short-term popularity into long-term gains? Most supporters of the UK Independence party say they will stay with the anti-EU party…

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The money goes on Scotland voting for independence and YES reaches its highest point on Betfair

The money goes on Scotland voting for independence and YES reaches its highest point on Betfair

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Betfair #IndyRef YES price moves to 24.4% chance – the highest level yet pic.twitter.com/oTG7n9E0zq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 7, 2014 YES remains the value bet There’s been quite a rush of money going on YES for the Scottish IndyRef over the past few days so much so that the price on the Betfair exchange is quite a lot tighter. When I recomended three weeks ago that YES was the value bet the price on Betfair represented an 18% chance….

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CON has a good chance of coming out top on votes: holding and winning seats is going to be a lot more challenging

CON has a good chance of coming out top on votes: holding and winning seats is going to be a lot more challenging

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The Tory vote will be boosted by UKIP returners and fewer 2010 CON don’t knows At the end of last week Ladbrokes put up a GE2015 market on whether the Tories could come out with most votes but be behind on seats. The price when I got on at was 8/1 which seemed a good value bet. I am increasingly coming to the view that this might happen. As we get closer to May 7th 2015, election day, I think…

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What’s striking about the Maria Miller polling is that CON voters are as hostile to her as everyone else

What’s striking about the Maria Miller polling is that CON voters are as hostile to her as everyone else

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Dominating the Mail on Sunday front page is report of Survation poll on Maria Miller pic.twitter.com/INWm0ltjXo — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 6, 2014 The Mail on Sunday ratchets up the pressure on Maria Miller Very often the most important factor in polling is not the data but how it is used. There can be few better examples than today’s Mail on Sunday coverage of its Maria Miller polling. The paper, like the Telegraph and the Times yesterday, is after her…

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Worrying GE2015 and Euro numbers for the Tories in latest Survation/Mail on Sunday poll

Worrying GE2015 and Euro numbers for the Tories in latest Survation/Mail on Sunday poll

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Last week the Survation GE2015 gap was just 1% – now it’s 7% Survation finds 6% CON drop for EP2014 as both UKIP & LD get boosts On the Euro polling the big difference between Survation and ComRes was on the timing of the fieldwork. All of the Survation work took place after the Clegg/Farage BBC TV debate. As can be seen the firm reports big changes compared with a week ago with the Tories as the main loser. I’m…

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