They’ll never admit it publicly but LD chances of retaining seats against the Tories rely a lot on UKIP doing well

They’ll never admit it publicly but LD chances of retaining seats against the Tories rely a lot on UKIP doing well

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Why the Yellows need the purple surge to be sustained It was back in September last year that Lord Ashcroft produced his most recent examination on the marginals where the most surprising finding was how well the yellows appeared to be doing in seats they’ll be trying to win off the Tories in May next year. In the eight constituencies polled Ashcroft found that the LDs were only 3% behind the blues opening up the possiblity that one or two…

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Local By-Election Preview: April 3rd 2014

Local By-Election Preview: April 3rd 2014

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Blacko and Higherford on Pendle (Conservative defence) Result of last election to council (2011): Conservatives 18, Labour 16, Liberal Democrats 12, British National Party 2, Independents 1 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 7) Result of ward at last election (2011): Conservative 583 (80%), Labour 148 (20%). Conservative HOLD with a majority of 435 (60%) Candidates duly nominated: Noel McEvoy (Con), Robert Oliver (Lab), Darren Reynolds (Lib Dem), Mick Waddington (UKIP) Pendle’s electoral history since 2003 reads like “I’m a…

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Farage’s performance last night makes it much harder to keep him out of the GE2015 debates

Farage’s performance last night makes it much harder to keep him out of the GE2015 debates

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It's going to be much harder keeping Farage out of the GE2015 debates pic.twitter.com/FamJJU9Muh — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2014 Unless Dave agrees he’ll be accused of running scared The big consequence of last night’s widely perceived victory by Farage in the debate with Clegg is that it’s going to be a lot harder keeping the UKIP leader out of the leaders’ debates at GE2015. Quite simply Clegg is now not in a position to object while Ed Miliband has…

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Farage v Clegg post debate polling is out

Farage v Clegg post debate polling is out

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The first two polls have big victories for Farage   BREAKING: FARAGE WINS: Farage, 68%; Nick Clegg, 27%. Don’t know, 5%. #europedebate pic.twitter.com/Kkd3KEskkD — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) April 2, 2014 BREAKING – Gdn/ICM poll finds FARAGE beats CLEGG by 69% to 31% — Tom Clark (@guardian_clark) April 2, 2014 I’ll update this thread when the other polling comes in. Update I – From ICM More from the Guardian ICM poll. Who had the more appealing personality? Farage – 49%…

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On a TV near you from 7pm: Nick versus Nigel – the second leg BBC2

On a TV near you from 7pm: Nick versus Nigel – the second leg BBC2

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Getting ready for the big debate pic.twitter.com/AcBRMoPBvw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2014 There'll be 3+ debate polls tonight Opinium & ICM have demographics weightings unlike YouGov last week which didn't even do gender split — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2014 Because this is on BBC2 it’s expected that it will get a much larger audience. Who’ll win? As has been said many times before – both of them. This thread will be updated. Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from…

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UKIP is making a strategic mistake putting most of the focus on LAB voters for the May Euros

UKIP is making a strategic mistake putting most of the focus on LAB voters for the May Euros

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Farage hands a bonus to Cameron On Monday Farage told newsmen that “We are going to be spending the bulk of our money in the next eight weeks in the big cities in the Midlands and the north targeting the Labour vote”. There’ a lot of rhetoric from the purples at the moment about how they are attracting support from LAB voters – a statement that’s simply not supported by the polling. Thus the March Populus aggregate with a 16,424…

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Ever so slightly the two most important measures for GE2015 have edged to the Tories in March

Ever so slightly the two most important measures for GE2015 have edged to the Tories in March

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But there’s still a long way to go As regulars will know my analysis of the GE 2015 outcome is mostly focused on two key polling measures – the proportion of 2010 CON voters now saying UKIP and the 2010 LD who say they’ll vote Labour. These have to decline if the blues are to have any chance whatsoever of remaining in power on May 8th next year. For the polling of the past four years has seen very little…

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