Farage’s performance last night makes it much harder to keep him out of the GE2015 debates

Farage’s performance last night makes it much harder to keep him out of the GE2015 debates

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It's going to be much harder keeping Farage out of the GE2015 debates pic.twitter.com/FamJJU9Muh — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2014 Unless Dave agrees he’ll be accused of running scared The big consequence of last night’s widely perceived victory by Farage in the debate with Clegg is that it’s going to be a lot harder keeping the UKIP leader out of the leaders’ debates at GE2015. Quite simply Clegg is now not in a position to object while Ed Miliband has…

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Farage v Clegg post debate polling is out

Farage v Clegg post debate polling is out

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The first two polls have big victories for Farage   BREAKING: FARAGE WINS: Farage, 68%; Nick Clegg, 27%. Don’t know, 5%. #europedebate pic.twitter.com/Kkd3KEskkD — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) April 2, 2014 BREAKING – Gdn/ICM poll finds FARAGE beats CLEGG by 69% to 31% — Tom Clark (@guardian_clark) April 2, 2014 I’ll update this thread when the other polling comes in. Update I – From ICM More from the Guardian ICM poll. Who had the more appealing personality? Farage – 49%…

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On a TV near you from 7pm: Nick versus Nigel – the second leg BBC2

On a TV near you from 7pm: Nick versus Nigel – the second leg BBC2

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Getting ready for the big debate pic.twitter.com/AcBRMoPBvw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2014 There'll be 3+ debate polls tonight Opinium & ICM have demographics weightings unlike YouGov last week which didn't even do gender split — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2014 Because this is on BBC2 it’s expected that it will get a much larger audience. Who’ll win? As has been said many times before – both of them. This thread will be updated. Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from…

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UKIP is making a strategic mistake putting most of the focus on LAB voters for the May Euros

UKIP is making a strategic mistake putting most of the focus on LAB voters for the May Euros

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Farage hands a bonus to Cameron On Monday Farage told newsmen that “We are going to be spending the bulk of our money in the next eight weeks in the big cities in the Midlands and the north targeting the Labour vote”. There’ a lot of rhetoric from the purples at the moment about how they are attracting support from LAB voters – a statement that’s simply not supported by the polling. Thus the March Populus aggregate with a 16,424…

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Ever so slightly the two most important measures for GE2015 have edged to the Tories in March

Ever so slightly the two most important measures for GE2015 have edged to the Tories in March

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But there’s still a long way to go As regulars will know my analysis of the GE 2015 outcome is mostly focused on two key polling measures – the proportion of 2010 CON voters now saying UKIP and the 2010 LD who say they’ll vote Labour. These have to decline if the blues are to have any chance whatsoever of remaining in power on May 8th next year. For the polling of the past four years has seen very little…

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Nighthawks is open

Nighthawks is open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk, Right Now, It’s Ok to delurk, delurking will make you feel Whole Again. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Are things really looking that bad for the Lib Dems? Nick Clegg aims to show emotional side in second…

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The ComRes “East of England” poll that isn’t quite what the BBC reported it to be

The ComRes “East of England” poll that isn’t quite what the BBC reported it to be

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How BBC East reported a sub-set of 58 people from a 3 wk old ComRes EU2014 poll The party %ages add up to 112 pic.twitter.com/t6vVQkP8Tg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2014 There’s been a huge fuss over the past couple of hours over a ComRes a EP2014 “poll” that has UKIP on 44% in their area of greatest strength, East of England. The above is a screenshot showing the data was portrayed in the “Look East” programme. Only problem is…

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Tories the main winner, UKIP the main loser in the March 2014 Populus monthly aggregate – sample size 16k

Tories the main winner, UKIP the main loser in the March 2014 Populus monthly aggregate – sample size 16k

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LAB share down on the month but only by 0.5% Today sees the second of what looks set to be a great resource right through until the general election – the Populus/FT monthly aggregate based on all the firm’s twice-weekly surveys with an overall sample size of more more than 16k. Having a sample on that scale means that the cross-tabs are more meaningful with much smaller margins of errors than we get with individual polls. Thus two key pointers…

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