Polling analysis: The big driver of Labour’s decline has not been been a move to CON but to don’t know

Polling analysis: The big driver of Labour’s decline has not been been a move to CON but to don’t know

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Also Ukip sees big increase in 2010 LAB switchers The chart shows the responses of those telling ICM in their last six polls that they voted Labour at GE2010 but have now switched to either “Dont know/Refused” or Ukip. As can be seen there has been a marked increase in switching to the purples but by far and away the biggest element has been the increase in 2010 LAB voters now saying they don’t know or simply refusing to given…

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Both LAB and Ukip drop 4% in latest Ipsos-MORI poll with the Greens jumping 5

Both LAB and Ukip drop 4% in latest Ipsos-MORI poll with the Greens jumping 5

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Farage sees his net satisfaction ratings down 7.5% @IpsosMORI chart showing change in its monthly leader ratings. Biggest net change -7.5% for Farage pic.twitter.com/bEdv8JFR3J — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 14, 2014 Given recent polls today’s May Political Monitor from Ipsos-MORI will come as something as a relief to Labour. They are down 4% but still in the lead. A more interesting change has been the 4% fall-back in Ukip’s Westminster voting share. This combined with declining ratings for Farage might…

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Labour drops to its lowest level with YouGov since the summer of 2010

Labour drops to its lowest level with YouGov since the summer of 2010

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Next poll up this week is Ipsos-MORI political monitor. Will it continue Labour's terrible polling week? pic.twitter.com/X3HcpFpNnQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 14, 2014 The red team’s terrible polling week continues When on Monday monrning the latest Populus poll came out showing LAB on 36% just a point ahead of the Tories it didn’t attract much attention. Since its big party ID weightings change in February the firm has been showing some of the worst LAB position and this just…

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Nighthhawks is now open

Nighthhawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’re Footloose, and fancy free tonight, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight, don’t worry, delurking isn’t the Highway to The Danger Zone. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) There’s still time to win, if Miliband can stop the rot As Labour’s poll…

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Remember that even Tony Blair with all his magic was never able to lead New Labour to victory in the Euro elections

Remember that even Tony Blair with all his magic was never able to lead New Labour to victory in the Euro elections

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The closed list PR system has never worked for the red team The Westminster polling above is from May 1999 when Tony Blair’s New Labour was riding high and William Hague’s Tories were struggling to make an impact. At the time those sorts of 20%+ poll leads were common place and, as we all know, two years later New Labour went on to win a second huge landslide victory only a few seats down on 1997. Yet success in the…

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The Tories take the lead in ICM Euros poll and my 56-1 bet is starting to look good

The Tories take the lead in ICM Euros poll and my 56-1 bet is starting to look good

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The LDs slump to fifth place behind the Greens Just a year ago I placed a bet at 10/1 that the Tories would win most votes in next week’s Euro elections – a position that has found little support on PB or elsewhere. I’ve stuck with my guns and last week I extended my position even further and got on at a 56/1 on Betfair. Tonight the Guardian ICM poll on the Euros had the Tories in the lead with…

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ICM also has the Tories with a 2% lead to add to a terrible day for LAB

ICM also has the Tories with a 2% lead to add to a terrible day for LAB

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LAB just 1% up on their GE2010 share Two terrible polls in the past few hours for Labour. After going through a period of 27 months without a CON lead we now have two polls showing the blues ahead. This must be seriously worrying for the EdM camp. Tonight’s 31% LAB share from ICM is the lowest from any poll since GE2010 and means that Labour has just put on 1% since Gordon Brown lost that election. Earlier in the…

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