Time to make a call. The value bet in Newark is 3-1 that it will be Labour

Time to make a call. The value bet in Newark is 3-1 that it will be Labour

Comments 0 Comment

At Corby there was 12.7% CON>LAB swing but that was pre-Ukip surge & fewer 2010 LDs to squeeze Newark requires 15.4% LAB @ 3/1 great bet — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 2, 2014 We now have a by-election date, June 5th, the declaration by Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, that he won’t be his party’s candidate and the launching of Newark markets by the main political bookmakers. My money at this early stage has gone on Labour simply because it is the value…

Read More Read More

Local By-Election Preview : May 1st 2014

Local By-Election Preview : May 1st 2014

Comments 0 Comment

Caol and Mallaig on Highland (Independent defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Independent 33, SNP 22, Liberal Democrat 15, Labour 8, Non Party Independent 2 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 8) Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected Independents 905, 710, 506, 71 (79%) Scottish National Party 411 (15%) Conservatives 66 (2%) Non Party Independent 60 (2%) Scottish Christian Party 45 (2%) Candidates duly nominated: William MacDonald (SNP), Liam Simmonds (UKIP), Ben Thompson…

Read More Read More

Today’s new Euro polls: Survation for London and YouGov for GB

Today’s new Euro polls: Survation for London and YouGov for GB

Comments 0 Comment

The LDs seem to be holding up well in London It is widely known that London tends to have a different view of the world than the rest of GB and so it appears to be with this month’s Euro elections. Although up on 2009 Ukip have not made the breakthroughs on the same scale in the capital as elsewhere. Conversely the LDs who have taken one pummelling pummelling after another are finding that their London vote in the Euros…

Read More Read More

Mike Nattrass’s breakaway party could win 5% or more of the Euro votes putting it in fifth place

Mike Nattrass’s breakaway party could win 5% or more of the Euro votes putting it in fifth place

Comments 0 Comment

Pollsters should start including it in their Euro2014 prompts Ukip is surging in the polls and, if the latest numbers are a good indication, look set to pull off a sensational result on May 22nd. So far, however, the pollsters have yet to catch up with the possible impact of the party formed by the ex-Ukip deputy leader, Mike Nattrass, which will appear at or near the top, of every ballot paper in England under the name “An Independence from…

Read More Read More

This Survation poll on Farage, taken this morning, seems out of line with the latest Euro voting numbers

This Survation poll on Farage, taken this morning, seems out of line with the latest Euro voting numbers

Comments 0 Comment

Participants were asked were asked whether they agreed or disagreed with two statements:- “I would vote for Nigel Farage if he was standing in my constituency” (%) “Nigel Farage chose not to stand in Newark primarily because he is scared of losing” (%) The poll, for HuffPost is another example of how Survation is fast establishing a reputation as the most agile pollster. Yet again it has got right on top of issues by putting together, carriying out the fieldwork,…

Read More Read More

Two new polls for the EP2014 elections have Ukip leads of 9% and 11%

Two new polls for the EP2014 elections have Ukip leads of 9% and 11%

Comments 0 Comment

43% of 2010 CON voters say they’ll vote purple on May 22 Away from from Newark there’ve been two new Euro polls this morning both showing very similar figures. Check the interactive chart – LAB & CON shares both the same while ComRes makes it 38% for Ukip and TNS-BMRB makes it 36% These are massive moves which, if sustained, point to a dramatic outcome in the elections on May 22nd. For me the stunning figure is that both polls…

Read More Read More

Farage should only be the Ukip candidate in Newark if they are 90% certain that he’d win

Farage should only be the Ukip candidate in Newark if they are 90% certain that he’d win

Comments 0 Comment

Another good second place won’t be enough The media frenzy and the clamour for Farage to be the Ukip candidate will continue until he decides one way or the other. My assumption is that given the possibility that Newark has been on the cards for nearly a year that all the parties would have carried out preliminary work and have come to an assessment about their strategy. Ukip must have an idea of the terrain. The challenge for them is…

Read More Read More

By-election in Newark as Patrick Mercer resigns – Will Farage stand?

By-election in Newark as Patrick Mercer resigns – Will Farage stand?

Comments 0 Comment

New PB Thread on the Newark by-election http://t.co/4w5rDEVYsB pic.twitter.com/3lZWA51Yug — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) April 29, 2014 So we have a by-election in Newark. Earlier on today, when I speculated on whether a Newark by-election will be held on May 22nd, the same day as the locals and Euros, Mark Senior posted It is impossible for there to be a by election in Newark or anywhere else on May 22nd . section 14 of the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013…

Read More Read More