The Tories are ahead in this poll for the Sun by Survation, but down nearly 18% since the general election, but with a strong campaign, I can see either UKIP or Labour winning, the fact that UKIP are up over 24% since the General Election, compared to 4.7% that Labour are up since the election, shows the momentum is with UKIP. The normal caveats that this just one poll, this raises an interesting dilemma for Labour, and their supporters? Do…
Final figures show that UKIP won 3.8% of council seats on May 22 – down from 6.2% on 2013. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 29, 2014 General Election are about winning seats not regional vote shares Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble Follow @MSmithsonPB
As part of their polling for The Times, YouGov asked “Imagine that at the next election the party leaders remained David Cameron for the Conservatives, Ed Miliband for Labour and Nick Clegg for the Liberal Democrats. How would you vote?” Normally they ask “If there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Scottish Nationalist/Plaid cymru, some other party, would not vote, don’t know” Now the first thing that caught my eye…
New PB thread on Lord Oakeshott’s polls. http://t.co/5G50n29GOC pic.twitter.com/dXXotaSaKi — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 28, 2014 Lord Oakeshott resigned today from the Lib Dems following the publication of those polls. He said “I am sure the party is heading for disaster if it keeps Nick Clegg; and I must not get in the way of the many brave Liberal Democrats fighting for change†It also emerged there were other polls, that unsurprisingly showed Danny Alexander losing his seat, but…
UKIP winning almost one in six of all voters Thanks to Andy JS who has done a brilliant job collecting and recording the data from each of the thousands of individual seats that were fought on May 22nd. This is the second year he has done this and provides a vital resource. Generally he has had to go into every local authority website and transpose the detailed results from each individual ward onto his spreadsheet. These figures differ considerably from…
After several days of pressure on Nick Clegg new YouGov polling for the Times suggests that most current party supporters want him to remain as leader. Even amongst those who voted for the party in 2010 he has a lead. The point, of course, is that those still supporting the party are likely to be loyalists. Amongst all sampled, however, 42% say he shouldn’t remain with 30% saying he should. As to whether the party would do better being led…
Lord Ashcroft’s latest weekly phone poll is out. @LordAshcroft latest Westminster VI poll, changes since last week Con 29 (nc), Lab 31 (-4), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 17 (+3) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 27, 2014 Populus have published their bi-weekly online poll New Populus VI: Lab 36 (=); Cons 34 (=); LD 9 (=); UKIP 14 (=); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://t.co/GvE36tpnBc — Populus (@PopulusPolls) May 27, 2014 Meanwhile Ipsos-Mori have some polling out, here are the…
Last week Labour beat the Tories in the local elections by just 1%, according to the Rallings and Thrasher NEV (national equivalent voteshare) calculation. This is the last set of locals before the general election. Is there anything we can divine from this performance? Yes, it looks like Labour will be soundly defeated next year. The following graph tells the tale (general elections bordered in white). We see that, going back to 1979, no party with such a minuscule lead…