After Newark CON must be pretty confident of holding Cambs South – the next by-election in the pipeline?

After Newark CON must be pretty confident of holding Cambs South – the next by-election in the pipeline?

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The contest that could be coming up to fill Lansley’s seat? In February I was the first to tip the ex-health secretary and now leader of the House, Andrew Lansley, as the next UK commissioner in Brussels. I got on at 16/1 and since the price tightened to him being an odds-on favourite. Now the bookies are not taking bets for it’s been informally announced that Lansley’s the man and he has even spoken publicly about it. The winnings I…

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Polling on whom would make the best Tory leader after Dave

Polling on whom would make the best Tory leader after Dave

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YouGov asked If David Cameron were to step down as leader of the Conservative Party, which of the following do you think would make the best leader? It doesn’t make for good reading for Michael Gove, not too bad Theresa May, and good for Boris. It is interesting, Boris leads Theresa May on every demographic in the graphic above and every age group except on the over 60s, and it’s a tie between Boris and May on females. A couple of caveats, there’s…

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Was Theresa May on manoeuvres and did it cost her SPAD her job?

Was Theresa May on manoeuvres and did it cost her SPAD her job?

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Mail on Sunday front page – “Tory bloodbath over Muslim schools fiasco” #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/VrCxEe5xSK — Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) June 7, 2014 Today’s front pages don’t make great reading for the Tories, and in particular Theresa May or Michael Gove. The Sunday Times reports (££) The row exposed deep rifts within the cabinet. Two cabinet ministers accused May of running a “tiresome” and “obvious” leadership campaign, picking a fight with Gove to boost her hopes of succeeding Cameron if he…

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Opinium poll

Opinium poll

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As we can see with this poll, the trend we’ve seen with some other pollsters since the local and European elections, Labour’s lead appears to be widening, UKIP’s support appears to be solid, whilst for the Lib Dems they hit their lowest share with this pollster since July 2013. The fieldwork was before the Newark by-election. The following graph, shows the responses to the following question, Thinking about the current state of the UK economy, would you say it is. The…

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Should the Lib Dems treat the 2015 election as their Rorke’s Drift

Should the Lib Dems treat the 2015 election as their Rorke’s Drift

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The video above is what it must feel like to be Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems and what awaits them in next year’s General Election. James Kirkup in the Telegraph writes about the Lib Dems in Newark If Labour was passive in Newark, the Lib Dems were non-existent. Not a single Lib Dem MP campaigned there, and only a single peer. (Lord Newby). The cash-strapped central party gave no support to the local candidate. Finishing sixth and losing the…

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Labour in Newark: Ruthless or wrongheaded?

Labour in Newark: Ruthless or wrongheaded?

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Soft-pedalling the campaign is a sign of both weakness and strength Conventional wisdom says that general elections are won or lost based on the decisions of a few tens of thousands of swing voters across the country’s marginal seats.  As an assertion, it was never entirely true – those voters made next to no difference in 1983 or 1997 for example – but in an increasingly fractured party system, the assumptions on which it rests become more and more questionable….

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Local By-Election Results: June 5th 2014

Local By-Election Results: June 5th 2014

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Clydesdale South on South Lanarkshire (SNP defence) Result: Labour 1,492 votes (41% -3%), Scottish National Party 1,170 (32% -10%), Conservative 659 (18% +8%), United Kingdom Independence Party 233 (6% +2%), Green 104 (3%) Labour GAIN from SNP on the fifth count with a majority of 322 (9%) on a swing of 3.5% from SNP to Lab Turnout: 30.97% Newark in the Westminster Parliament (Con defence) Conservatives 17,431 votes (45.03% -8.82% on Election 2010) United Kingdom Independence Party 10,028 votes (25.91%…

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Round-up of the latest numbers and charts from this exceptional political period

Round-up of the latest numbers and charts from this exceptional political period

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It’s ex-Tories over 65s that have driven the surge Interesting analysis from @IpsosMORI on the source of UKIP voters by previous allegiance & age. 18% ex-CON 65+ pic.twitter.com/foOc1Jfk8T — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 6, 2014 Eastleigh’s 27.8% still the best-ever UKIP Westminster performance Women voters: The big challenge facing Farage Attendees at this Farage/Helmer meeting last Saturday highlighted UKIP challenge. Very few women. pic.twitter.com/H6VaZb4OrR — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 6, 2014 Mike Smithson