Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: July 17th 2014

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: July 17th 2014

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Oban North and Lorn on Argyll and Bute (SNP defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Independents 15, Scottish Nationalists 13, Conservatives 4, Liberal Democrats 4 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 4) Result of last election in ward (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Scottish Nationalists 410, 707 (31%) Independents 421, 807, 125, 361, 222, 58 (55%) Liberal Democrats 188 (5%) Conservatives 332 (9%) Candidates duly nominated: Gerry Fisher (SNP), Kieron Green (Lab), John MacGregor (Ind), Marri Malloy (Ind), Andrew…

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Latest from the “Polling Observatory” is that there’s been a slow decline in CON prospects but GE2015 still too close to call

Latest from the “Polling Observatory” is that there’s been a slow decline in CON prospects but GE2015 still too close to call

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LAB holding firm with Polling Observatory when on past trends they should be declining http://t.co/YnksOt9D81 pic.twitter.com/FJeNISIjoU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 17, 2014 CON and LAB movements not going with historical trends Each month political scientists at a group of universities put out a GE2015 forecast under the rather grandiose banner of “The Polling Observatory” which is based on current polling and historical polling experience. The latest is in the chart above. A can be seen CON and LAB are…

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First post-reshuffle poll has the public backing Cameron over Gove

First post-reshuffle poll has the public backing Cameron over Gove

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What’s marked here is the readiness of those polled across the spectrum to back Cameron. Also note the contrast between the Gove doing good job numbers and the reshuffle finding. You would expect them to be closer. My view on this remains – it was a smart move by the PM which will, at the margin, have a positive electoral impact in the blues favour. Meanwhile Clegg’s got a Twitter hit on his hands What I wore to the office…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’re Under Pressure tonight, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker,  why not delurk, you’ll find posting on PB A Kind of Magic, The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) PMQs: Miliband sends his MPs off for the summer, each with their own personal rain cloud. Cameron misrepresented Harman’s…

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How the Evening Standard is reporting the July 2014 Ipsos-MORI poll which has no change in LAB lead

How the Evening Standard is reporting the July 2014 Ipsos-MORI poll which has no change in LAB lead

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Evening Standard reporting Ipsos-MORI that has Gove the "most unpopular politician in Britain" http://t.co/P8IOVtTwBu pic.twitter.com/0LhC4dNTGe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 16, 2014 This is from Joe Murphy’s Standard report:- ” Ipsos MORI found just 22 per cent of the public say they like Mr Gove, while 54 per cent dislike him. A derisory 11 per cent think he has what it takes to be a prime minister, while 66 per cent say he does not. The findings come from the final…

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On a uniform swing Nicky Morgan’s Loughborough goes LAB even if CON win most votes nationally

On a uniform swing Nicky Morgan’s Loughborough goes LAB even if CON win most votes nationally

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Nicky Morgan's Loughborough is a key marginal which on uniform swing goes LAB even if CON ahead on votes nationally pic.twitter.com/yAA3hSUQln — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 16, 2014 Ladbrokes make it LAB 10/11 and CON 10/11 The above table is based on the Electoral Calculus projection of what happens on national vote shares of CON 36, LAB 35.6, LD, 12, UKIP 9. The seat highlighted is Nicky Morgan’s Loughborough which as can be seen would go LAB even though EdM’s…

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Extraordinary. Gove was killed by Lynton Crosby’s private polling of teachers

Extraordinary. Gove was killed by Lynton Crosby’s private polling of teachers

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I understand Osborne opposed Gove move but dire opinion polling presented by Lynton Crosby of MG's standing with teachers forced change. — Tim Montgomerie (@TimMontgomerie) July 15, 2014 This matches YouGov polling pre-GE2010 and 2014 Just for @MSmithsonPB – proportion of teachers in each constituency in England & Wales, overlaid by Labour targets: pic.twitter.com/bPrwTXDVyf — Election-data (@election_data) July 15, 2014

The re-shuffle continued:-

The re-shuffle continued:-

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John McTernan sums this up brilliantly Theme of the #reshuffle is weakness. Teachers hate Gove; green lobby hate Paterson; euro-sceptics hate Clarke/Hague. All shall have scalps. — John McTernan (@johnmcternan) July 15, 2014 Liz Truss promotion to cabinet almost 2 years after this @NewStatesman cover tipped her as Iron Lady 2.0 pic.twitter.com/ICMQsSgFKe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2014