Ukip shares edging down with the pollster that got the May Euro elections most right
YouGov, of course, was the most accurate pollster on the May 22nd Euro elections.
If the Tories do win more votes than LAB but get fewer seats then let there be no bleating about the system being unfair
That’s the system that they campaigned hard to retain in 2011 If current broad poll trends continue and some of the CON-Ukip shifters return then it is likely that my 8/1 bet that that Tories will win most votes but come second to LAB on seats will be a winner. Broadly the 2010 LD switchers to LAB are staying relatively solid and the returnees could boost the CON aggregate national vote share as we get closer to polling day. The…
PB Nighthawks
Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’re going to be up, All Night Long, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, Hello, why not delurk tonight, if you do delurk, I’m sure you’ll be Dancing on the Ceiling in excitement. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Why Labour is cheered by its continuing…
To have any chance next May the Tories need to neutralise the NHS as an issue
The latest YouGov issues tracker showing rising concerns about health pic.twitter.com/3TuSXsxOYS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 9, 2014 Look at the differences between the two tables I very much like the YouGov two stage approach to issues polling teasing out large differences between what’s important to the country and what is important to those questioned and their families. In my view the one that is electorally most important is the latter. People, I’d argue, think most first of themselves and their…
If the Conservatives do lose power next May they’d be foolish to get rid of Cameron
He’s the party’s biggest asset If things go the way of current polling then it is highly likely that within less then a year we could have three separate leadership contests. Farage has said he’ll stand down if his party fails to get an MP and it is hard to see Clegg being able to carry on if the election results in the disaster being predicted by the polls. But what about the Tories? From past experience we know that…
PB Nighthawks is now open
Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight, cross the Rubicon, from lurking to posting. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Are the Greens to the Lib Dems what Ukip is to the Tories? Miliband’s main man blames the voters A recovering economy could hand…
Predicting GE2015 – my session with YouGov’s Joe Twyman
Trying to explain why the Ashcroft National Poll appears to be so erratic
Turnout filtering might be the key At the excellent PB gathering in Ilkley last night the big topic of conversation was the extraordinary Ashcroft national poll which saw the 2% CON lead of last week become a 7% LAB one. At 4pm each Monday afternoon since the start of May Lord Ashcroft has been publishing his weekly national phone poll. This has been a great addition to the overall polling mix particularly because testing political opinion in this way has…