David Herdson on what what might happen to upset the consensus on the GE2015 outcome

David Herdson on what what might happen to upset the consensus on the GE2015 outcome

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We should thinking more about the range of possibilities I was struck at the politicalbetting meet in Ilkley on Monday how much consensus there was about the likely result of the next election.  The great majority expected Labour as the largest party in another hung parliament.  That’s the view of the betting markets too: Labour is best priced at 9/10 with bwin to win most seats (more generally 5/6 or 4/5), while the Tories are odds against only with Ladbrokes…

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Local By-Election Results with news of a Lib Dem gain from CON in a seat where they were 4th

Local By-Election Results with news of a Lib Dem gain from CON in a seat where they were 4th

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Penistone West on Barnsley (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 772 (31% -17%), Conservatives 719 (29% -17%), UKIP 622 (25%), Independent 348 (14%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 53 (2%) on no swing from Lab to Con since 2012 Boughton (Lab Defence) and Winnington and Castle (Lab Defence) on Cheshire West and Chester Boughton Result: Labour 614 (45% -7%), Conservatives 469 (34% -6%), UKIP 131 (10%), Green 86 (6%), Liberal Democrats 70 (5% -3%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 145…

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New IndyRef poll from Survation sees more Scottish people making up their minds but overall picture staying the same

New IndyRef poll from Survation sees more Scottish people making up their minds but overall picture staying the same

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Some bookies tighten the YES betting price There’s been a flurry of betting activity on the IndyRef overnight with William Hill reporting a fair bit of money going on YES which has resulted in them tightening the price from 5/1 to 9/2. Maybe this was driven in part by news filtering out of the latest polling, from Survation, which has the big picture remaining the same but with fewer people now saying that they don’t know. The pollster, alongside ICM…

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Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Elections Preview : July 10th 2014

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Elections Preview : July 10th 2014

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Penistone West on Barnsley (Lab Defence) Result of council at last election (2014): Labour 53, Independents 5, Conservatives 4 (Labour overall majority of 44) Result of ward in last electoral cycle 2011: Conservative 1,836 (47%), Labour 1,298 (33%), Independent 558 (14%), British National Party 195 (5%) (Con HOLD) 2012: Labour 1,389 (48%), Conservative 1,337 (46%), Liberal Democrats 190 (7%) (Lab GAIN) 2014: Labour 1,015 (29%), Conservative 973 (28%), UKIP 891 (25%), Independent 635 (18%) (Lab GAIN) Candidates duly nominated: David…

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If the Tories do win more votes than LAB but get fewer seats then let there be no bleating about the system being unfair

If the Tories do win more votes than LAB but get fewer seats then let there be no bleating about the system being unfair

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That’s the system that they campaigned hard to retain in 2011 If current broad poll trends continue and some of the CON-Ukip shifters return then it is likely that my 8/1 bet that that Tories will win most votes but come second to LAB on seats will be a winner. Broadly the 2010 LD switchers to LAB are staying relatively solid and the returnees could boost the CON aggregate national vote share as we get closer to polling day. The…

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PB Nighthawks

PB Nighthawks

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Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’re going to be up, All Night Long, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, Hello, why not delurk tonight, if you do delurk, I’m sure you’ll be Dancing on the Ceiling in excitement. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Why Labour is cheered by its continuing…

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To have any chance next May the Tories need to neutralise the NHS as an issue

To have any chance next May the Tories need to neutralise the NHS as an issue

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The latest YouGov issues tracker showing rising concerns about health pic.twitter.com/3TuSXsxOYS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 9, 2014 Look at the differences between the two tables I very much like the YouGov two stage approach to issues polling teasing out large differences between what’s important to the country and what is important to those questioned and their families. In my view the one that is electorally most important is the latter. People, I’d argue, think most first of themselves and their…

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