If this was the outcome Cameron could sit tight We are going to see a lot of projected commons numbers like the ones in the chart above in the next ten months. What’s showing here are the buy levels for the three main parties on PaddyPower and as can be seen neither CON nor LAB would have a majority and would probably try to cobble together some deal to see themselves through. What the chart doesn’t show is that it’s…
Cameron retains his 17% lead with YouGov as best PM pic.twitter.com/ai1oNmBJ4N — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 31, 2014 Why are the Tories not in the lead? One of the ongoing mysteries is why CON continue to lag behind LAB in the voting intention polls. The economy is recovering and this is now being seen by voters. On top of that the Tories retain a solid lead over LAB as best party on the economy. We also have the Ed Miliband…
Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB Night Hawks. If you’re Hungry Like The Wolf for news on politics and betting, you’ve come to the right place on Planet Earth for political betting. If you’ve always been a lurker, and have The Reflex not to post, Nighthawks gives you an opportunity to delurk, don’t worry, you won’t become Wild Boys or Wild Girls after posting. The…
The @YouGov monthly average Jan 2013 – June 2014. Figures for July out on Friday. pic.twitter.com/pEBBd634Cu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 30, 2014 After the LAB lead dropped from 6% on Monday night to 1% last night there’s been a lot of discussion about the volatility of the firm’s out. In reality, of course, both of this week’s polls have been within the margin of error. The numbers I most look out for are above – the monthly averages which…
#IndyRef YES now being rated as just 14.2% chance by punters on Betfair – almost lowest level yet pic.twitter.com/LCfMjg0pU3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 30, 2014 But betting interest remains strong with nearly £1.1m traded The pre-Commonwealth games expectations that the Glasgow events would provide a boost for independence campaigners has yet to be materialised if Betfair punters are anything to go by. Even though Scottish athletes are having their best games ever punters appear unmoved. The last trade on…
Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, it’ll be a Tragedy if you don’t delurk, I’m sure your contributions won’t be Better Best Forgotten, I hope at least 5,6,7,8 lurkers delurk. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Why Cameron’s crackdown on immigrant benefits won’t help the Tories. The PM…
YouGov's "blame for the cuts" tracker has LAB equalling best figures for the year – but still it gets most blame. See pic.twitter.com/QS9Dd84yjk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 29, 2014 Ever since May 2010 I’ve said that the “blame for the cuts” tracker from YouGov might be a good indicator. The figures from 2014 are in the chart above and although the party is not on its worst position, 48% back in October 2010, it is still blamed more than…
CON & LAB governments running neck and neck as preferred outcome amongst UKIP voters You hear it all the time from the Blue teams when talking about the Ukip threat – that when faced with the prospect of a LAB government a large proportion will “come back home” and vote Tory. That was a view that I broadly shared until last night before my detailed study of the aggregate data from the latest 14k sample Ashcroft marginals polling focused on…