Home of the web’s best political conversation On A Night Like This, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. To all you lurkers, if you’re thinking Better the Devil You Know, nighthawks is Especially for You, it gives you a chance to delurk. I Should Be So Lucky if a few of you delurked. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant…
Ukip favourite to win S Thanet where it's said Farage will stand pic.twitter.com/3YAcDeUDY4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2014 South Thanet heading to be a great 3-way tussle I love Westminster seats battles where at least three parties are in with a shout. The betting on them can be very interesting and chances are that you’ll get longer than evens on the winner. South Thanet in Kent, won from LAB by pro-EU Tory, Laura Sandys, in May looks set…
Latest YouGov issues data showing relative lack of interest by UKIP voters in health & pensions. Odd given their age. pic.twitter.com/R2mmUIuZGF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2014 The table above is the latest issues polling by YouGov broken down by concerns for the country and for responders own families. Given that the age profile of kippers is tilted to the higher end of the range their views on the lack of importance of, say, education is understandable. But what…
Home of the web’s best political conversation On A Night Like This, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, I Want You, to delurk. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Britain has very little to fear from the ECHR. So why are so many Tories so afraid of it? Without older voters the Greens have…
The big message from latest @LordAshcroft marginals polling is that LAB is now being hurt more than CON by rise of UKIP in key seats — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 22, 2014 Two months ago @LordAshcroft 's marginals polling found LAB set to gain 13 of the 14 seats polled. Now that's down to 10 with UKIP taking 2. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 22, 2014 UKIP in lead in two of the seats polled UKIPNnow in lead in Thurrock…
With so much variation in the UKIP share in recent polls it is perhaps worth recalling that the firm that got it most right the last time they were tested, the May 22nd Euros, was YouGov. The figures are in the chart above and it is interesting that YouGov and ICM, the ones that did best on May 22nd, are continuing to show UKIP with smaller shares for the general election compared with other pollsters. Later this morning Lord Ashcroft…
Yet again the Ashcroft national phone poll has surprised us. This time with a 5% drop in CON support, 2% drop for LAB and a 3% increase for UKIP. Last week the Ashcroft figures were Con 32%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 7%, UKIP 14%, Green 6% This compares with the earlier Populus online phone poll that had the LAB lead moving from zero to 5%. Both are featured in the chart above. The Ashcroft changes are bigger than the margin…
Curtice is right: LD switchers aren’t going back “any time soon” In a broad-ranging interview just published Britain’s leading political scientist, Professor John Curtice made these observations about Labour’s polling position and GE2015. “..basically the reason why the Labour party is in the lead is because of the loss of Liberal Democrat support to Labour. It goes all the way back to 2010 and it’s not obvious that it’s going to go back anytime soon… ..I see no reason why…