The third poll this weekend shows the momentum is with Yes. With a little over four weeks to go it would appear the momentum is with Yes, as one of the pollsters that has had traditionally had the largest leads for No, shows significant movement towards Yes. CORRECTION New @YouGov /Times #indyref poll changes since Aug 4 Yes 38 % (+3) No 51% (-4) DK 11% (+1) Exc DK's Yes 43% (+3) No 57% (-3) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) August 17,…
August is supposed to be the silly season,  but for the second consecutive August, it appears Britain may intervene militarily in the Middle East. Last year, parliament ended that expedition before it even began. But in today’s Telegraph, Cameron writes Isil poses a direct and deadly threat to Britain. The poisonous extremism on the march in Iraq and Syria affects us all – and we have no choice but to rise to the challenge. YouGov over the last few days have…
Tonight sees two Indyref polls out. First up Panelbase for Yes Scotland, historically Panelbase have produced some of the smallest No leads. The fieldwork was this week, between the 12th and the 15th, The first question asked was the referendum question, in the past some Panelbase polls have not done this. Correction New Panelbase #indyref poll Changes since last month Yes 42 (+1) No 46 (-2) DK 12 (+1) Exc DK's Yes 48 (+2) No 52 (-2) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) August…
UKIP sees a six point surge with Opinium The usual caveats apply, this is but one poll, we need to see other polling to see if this UKIP surge is occurring or not. My own thought is that, this is more a return to the status quo for Opinium with regards to UKIP, their last poll, a fortnight ago, had UKIP down to their lowest point since February 2013, and that didn’t feel right. This UKIP’s highest score with…
Lord Ashcroft has polled the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency, about Boris, and it generally makes for great reading for the Mayor of London. The phone poll was conducted this week. It should be noted, the standard VI poll not mentioning Boris, shows a Con to Lab swing of 5.5%, which would indicate an approximate 3% Labour lead nationwide, which is in line with the national polling. The one downside for Boris is 50% of the voters don’t want him…
Never mind the LD switchers, the biggest threat to Labour was already in the Red column One assertion that receives a regular hearing on politicalbetting is that Labour is in an extremely strong position to win the next election thanks to that group of voters who switched from Lib Dem to Labour in 2010. They’ve been consistent in their support ever since and remain favourably disposed towards Miliband and Labour. Add in that UKIP’s support has come disproportionately from Con,…
South Normanton East on Bolsover (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 293 (71%), Conservative 120 (29%) Labour HOLD Knight’s Hill on Lambeth (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 1,265 (65%), Conservative 248 (13%), Green 230 (12%), UKIP 99 (5%), Liberal Democrat 94 (5%), Non Party Independent 51 (3%) Labour HOLD Harry Hayfield
Are we getting too many polls? I know that might be a churlish thing for us polling addicts to say but the below graph shows the comparison of the number of Westminster VI polls conducted by BPC pollsters, in July 2009 and July 2014. We’ve gone from eight polls in July 2009, to forty-four in July 2014, even if we remove the YouGov daily tracker, the number of non You-Gov polls has increased from five to twenty in the same…