Make no mistake the polls point to the IndyRef being on a knife-edge and so much depends on turnout
More than 80% of postal votes have now been returned The big unknown from this election is turnout – something that all the pollsters seek to measure and apply when working out their final vote shares. Thus the 2% NO lead ICM phone poll used the firm’s standard turnout adjuster of attaching a 50% discount to those who didn’t vote in previous parliamentary elections. But in the context Thursday’s totally unprecedented election we don’t know whether that’s a valid approach…