Guest Slot from Peter the Punter: Matthew and Peter Go To The Seaside – with a Marf cartoon

Guest Slot from Peter the Punter: Matthew and Peter Go To The Seaside – with a Marf cartoon

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Clacton doesn’t look like being the most exciting of elections. Matthew Shadwick [Shadsy] of Ladbrokes was kind enough to invite me along on a visit to the scene of one of tomorrow’s by-elections. I wondered whether he might need help collecting a flood of money, or maybe he just wanted some company while he stood outside the firm’s shop on Pier Avenue with his board optimistically offering odds of 1/50 UKIP, 14/1 Conservative and 33/1 Labour. We’d arranged to meet…

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Henry G Manson: Words and the world of workers – how Labour should respond to UKIP

Henry G Manson: Words and the world of workers – how Labour should respond to UKIP

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  The debate about UKIP is hotting up in Labour circles. UKIP are demonstrating they can get past Labour’s defences in a lot of traditional working class communities in a way the Tories never could. A few years ago the purple party were dismissed as ‘the BNP in blazers’ and a party with an appeal limited to southern leafy shires. Not now. Now UKIP are genuinely challenging in northern towns like Rotherham and Grimsby and have made enormous progress in…

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Is Clegg set to announce his departure today?

Is Clegg set to announce his departure today?

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Some interesting movements over at the bookies   @MSmithsonPB Still 5/1 with Ladbrokes, if anyone's interested. — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) October 8, 2014 Clegg NOT to lead LibDems into GE2015 price slashed from 13/2 to 2/1 after flood of bets overnight http://t.co/oSACEkpCfV — Paddy Power Politics (@pppolitics) October 8, 2014 Rumour mill continues to point to Nick Clegg announcing his departure today. Bet available at 5/6 here: http://t.co/ek1hEO3PHu — Paddy Power Politics (@pppolitics) October 8, 2014 It is worth checking…

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Clegg’s big day

Clegg’s big day

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So what will be the big surprise(s) from Clegg’s speech. Clegg's big day, what can we expect? http://t.co/rkg0RfVb3n pic.twitter.com/neID2svtnJ — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) October 8, 2014 I expect the issue that damaged the Lib Dems from the start, tuition fees will get an airing, as that probably helped defined the Lib Dems in government, but as he apologised in the past with no benefit, it might be a mistake to bring it up again as it might remind a certain…

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Tonight’s YouGov has Labour regaining the lead

Tonight’s YouGov has Labour regaining the lead

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There’ll be relief for the Reds that they Tory lead hasn’t lasted longer. YouGov/Sun poll tonight: big respite for nervous Ed Miliband as Labour regain the lead, for now at least. LAB 34%, CON 32%, UKIP 15%, LD 8%. — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) October 7, 2014 As ever, conference polling can be volatile. Hopefully, we’ll see the Ipsos-Mori phone in the next few days, which will give us further insight into the lie of the political land. TSE

Voters think Lib Dems will fade away within ten years but UKIP is here to stay

Voters think Lib Dems will fade away within ten years but UKIP is here to stay

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In the last few weeks, YouGov polled the following question about the Lib Dems and UKIP “Which of the following comes closer to your opinion about the future for the Lib Dems/UKIP”   As we can see the voters think going forward that UKIP will be more relevant than the Lib Dems. I suspect the current Westminster VI polling is driving this, as the Lord Ashcroft marginal polls showed, the Lib Dems are doing better than national polling suggests, more…

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Richard Nabavi asks Would Ed face a coup a few months after a Labour victory?

Richard Nabavi asks Would Ed face a coup a few months after a Labour victory?

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Please note this piece was written before the recent polling putting the Tories ahead If the voting in the next General Election reflects current opinion polling, Ed Miliband will become Prime Minister next May. Of course, the Conservatives are hopeful that the polls will shift before then, but, as things stand today, the possibility of a Labour-led government, either in a hung parliament or with a small majority, is certainly a very real one. The betting marketscurrently make it around a…

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In 2010 only 47% of voters had decided the way they were going to vote before the election campaign began

In 2010 only 47% of voters had decided the way they were going to vote before the election campaign began

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If the 2015 general election is like the 2010 election, then over half the voters still won’t have made up their minds until after the campaign starts next year. Whilst most of us have been poring over the polls in recent days, I noticed this analysis by YouGov asking voters back in 2010 when they had made up their minds which way they were going to vote. I was surprised that over half the voters still hadn’t made up their…

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