Andy Burnham rules out standing for the LAB leadership – get your money on Andy Burnham

Andy Burnham rules out standing for the LAB leadership – get your money on Andy Burnham

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EdM’s successor? Could be In the closing seconds of his interview on the Marr show this morning the shadow health secretary and 2010 leadership contender, Andy Burnham, was asked if he’d rule out standing the the job “in due course”. His denial was, to me, less than convincing. He’s come on a lot since his first leadership bid and I was quite impressed with the way he handled the interview. Both Ladbrokes and PaddyPower have him at 6/1. If EdM…

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When ComRes tested impact of prompting for UKIP the views of women barely changed. Male support however jumped by 8%

When ComRes tested impact of prompting for UKIP the views of women barely changed. Male support however jumped by 8%

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Two pollsters, three polls, and UKIP shares between 16% and 24% With all eyes on UKIP polling shares following their by election successes the online survey by ComRes for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror carried out a test to see whether, as many purple enthusiasts argue, their shares are understated by firms that don’t specifically prompt for the party. So the ComRes sample was split in two with the first using the conventional approach and the second including…

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If Stephen Fisher’s latest GE15 forecast is right LAB could win most seats with just 31.3% of the vote

If Stephen Fisher’s latest GE15 forecast is right LAB could win most seats with just 31.3% of the vote

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Latest GE15 forecast from Oxford's @StephenDFisher has CON winning most votes with LAB most seats pic.twitter.com/B8MJIVMc8W — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 18, 2014 CON with 2.7% more votes in the forecast get 7 fewer seats We’ve been here before and we’ll be here many times in the next six months – the way that on national vote shares at least the “system” seems to favour LAB so much. The latest from Oxford’s Stephen Fisher is in the panel above which…

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A Con-UKIP electoral pact? Forget it. It isn’t going to happen

A Con-UKIP electoral pact? Forget it. It isn’t going to happen

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Too much pushes the blues and purples apart Split parties do not win elections, so the saying goes.  Nor, by extension, do parties whose natural support base is divided between parties, particularly under FPTP – which is why from time to time we hear calls from some on the right-of-centre for an electoral pact between the Conservatives and UKIP, who look at the 45-50% that the two parties poll between them and dream of landslide governments rather than impotent oppositions. …

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Local By-Election Results : October 16th 2014

Local By-Election Results : October 16th 2014

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Harper Green on Bolton (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 1,176 (51% -1%), UKIP 777 (33% +15%), Conservative 282 (12% -11%), Greens 38 (2% -2%), Liberal Democrats 28 (1% -3%), Independent 19 (1%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 399 (18%) on a swing of 8% from Labour to UKIP Towyn on Conwy (Con Defence) Result: Conservative 143 (25%), Independent (Smith) 116 (20%), Independent (Johnson) 104 (18%), Labour 98 (17%), Independent (Griffiths) 69 (12%), Independent (Corry) 43 (8%) Conservative HOLD with a…

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Polling analysis: UKIP’s hurting CON even more in the marginals than it was 2 months ago

Polling analysis: UKIP’s hurting CON even more in the marginals than it was 2 months ago

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Latest churn figures from main parties to Farage’s One of the great things about the Lord Ashcroft marginals polling is the sheer scale of it and the size of the overall samples. He tends to operate with samples of 1,000 meaning that the latest batch involved talking on the phone to a total of 11,002 people which is the equivalent to almost a year’s worth of ICM or Ipsos-MORI polls. The benefit is that the aggregate data from all the…

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The polling’s not all good for UKIP: See this worrying data for Farage’s party from YouGov and Ipsos-MORI

The polling’s not all good for UKIP: See this worrying data for Farage’s party from YouGov and Ipsos-MORI

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YouGov polling for the @TheEconomist on perceptions of UKIP. http://t.co/htbjsweQWI pic.twitter.com/stPsFNlqjj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 17, 2014 Last month Ipsos-MORI had them the most disliked & least liked party Could we be seeing the basis for anti-purple tactical voting? In a week that has been dominated by positive GE15 voting numbers for YouGov there’s some other data from firm for the Economist, see top panel, that might make uncomfortable reading. The way the party is perceived by a representative sample…

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Tonight’s Local By-Election Preview by Harry Hayfield

Tonight’s Local By-Election Preview by Harry Hayfield

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Harper Green on Bolton (Lab Defence) Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 40, Conservatives 15, Liberal Democrats 3, United Kingdom Independence Party 2 (Labour majority of 20) Result of ward at last election (2013): Labour 744 (52%), Conservative 325 (23%), UKIP 252 (18%), Greens 60 (4%), Liberal Democrats 53 (4%) Candidates duly nominated: Jeff Armstrong (UKIP), Rebekah Fairhurst (Lib Dem), Susan Haworth (Lab), Joseph Holt (Ind), James Tomkinson (Green), Robert Tyler (Con) If a week is a long…

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