The latest round of Lord Ashcroft’s marginals’ polling finds a 5% CON to LAB swing – slightly more than the 3-4% we’ve been seeing in recent national polls

The latest round of Lord Ashcroft’s marginals’ polling finds a 5% CON to LAB swing – slightly more than the 3-4% we’ve been seeing in recent national polls

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@LordAshcroft latest batch of marginal polling finds 5% swing in CON held seats with majoritiies 3% – 4.8% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 16, 2014 Seat-by-seat results in my latest poll – swings range from 2% (Pudsey, Gloucester) to 8% (Brentford & Isleworth): pic.twitter.com/xEJCDlZdKj — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) October 16, 2014 I love this Tweet from Lord A No doubt Conservative Party internal polling will show a Conservative overall majority #comfortpolling — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) October 16, 2014 Aggregate shares…

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For the second consecutive day YouGov’s UKIP share moves to a record high

For the second consecutive day YouGov’s UKIP share moves to a record high

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Today's YouGov sees UKIP at highest level recorded by firm CON 31 LAB 33 LD 7 UKIP 19 GRN 5 pic.twitter.com/vSbRZITf97 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 16, 2014 Is this going to fade or are we seeing a permanent change? The record polling shares continue for UKIP with the latest YouGov daily poll moving up from yesterday’s 18% to 19% this morning. The latest figures have CON on 31% and LAB on 33% a joint main two party aggregate of just 64% which is a…

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Ipsos-Mori becomes the third pollster in less than a week to show a record high for UKIP

Ipsos-Mori becomes the third pollster in less than a week to show a record high for UKIP

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Following on from Survation and YouGov recording their highest ever shares for UKIP, Ipsos-Mori joins the party, and has their highest ever share for UKIP. Labour will be relieved to be back in the lead, but as with other pollsters, we’re seeing some historically low shares for the Con and Lab combined. Latest @IpsosMORI poll has Labour regaining the lead Con 30 (-4) Lab 33 (nc) LD 8 (+1) UKIP 16 (+1) Greens 5 (-1) pic.twitter.com/qljDjWCiwa — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB)…

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UKIP hit a record 18% from YouGov in the latest daily poll

UKIP hit a record 18% from YouGov in the latest daily poll

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How today's record UKIP share of 18% from YouGov compares with monthly averages from firm during 2014. pic.twitter.com/oIiKJPLco1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 15, 2014 The reverberations from Clacton continue After the strong UKIP performances in the most recent Survation, Ashcrfot and ICM polls YouGov is reporting this morning that the party is on 18% – the highest ever figure from the firm. Survation at the weekend had the party on 25% while ICM on Monday saw UKIP move up…

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Rochester & Strood looks set to be bigger even than Eastleigh

Rochester & Strood looks set to be bigger even than Eastleigh

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Kelly Tolurst 4/6 favourite to win 1st all postal by-election primary @KellyTolhurst one of the two candidates to be CON candidate in R&S – Britain's first all-postal by-election primary pic.twitter.com/DFOCI8GnuX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 14, 2014 Kelly’s opponent Anna Firth at 11/10 @anna_firth seeking the CON nomination in the Britain's first ever all-postal by-election primary. pic.twitter.com/rvPW3FSun9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 14, 2014 The winner of the CON all-postal primary in Rochester will have to beat Mark @MarkReckless pic.twitter.com/hnVfK7c6B6…

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The single issues that look most set to determine GE15 votes: ICM’s new approach to what’s salient

The single issues that look most set to determine GE15 votes: ICM’s new approach to what’s salient

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The gaps between the 2010 LDs and UKIP voters are enormous In its latest phone poll for the Guardian ICM takes a novel new approach to testing the salience of specific issues and the impact on voting. As can be seen in the chart above the sample was asked to state the single most important issue that would influence their vote. For me the big surprise is that immigration is pipped for top place by the NHS and that the…

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