How today's record UKIP share of 18% from YouGov compares with monthly averages from firm during 2014. pic.twitter.com/oIiKJPLco1
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 15, 2014
The reverberations from Clacton continue
After the strong UKIP performances in the most recent Survation, Ashcrfot and ICM polls YouGov is reporting this morning that the party is on 18% – the highest ever figure from the firm.
Survation at the weekend had the party on 25% while ICM on Monday saw UKIP move up 5% to 14%. The same day the Ashcroft National Poll had the party on 19% which equalled the previous record share.
So there’s strong polling evidence now that UKIP has, as you’d expect, benefited enormously from the winning its first ever MP at Clacton last week and the coming so close in Heywood.
The latest YouGov has CON 30%/LAB 34%/LD 8%/UKIP 18%
With the upcoming Rochester by-election on November 20th there’s a strong chance that the party can remain at high levels. Insurgent parties need publicity and by-election successes can keep them in the spotlight.
As I’ve said in previous posts Rochester is by far and away the most important by-election of recent times. Quite simply the Tories have to stop the Farage band-wagon here or else prospects for GE15 will look even bleaker. At the same time a failure by Mark Reckless to hold onto the seat with his new allegiance would be a severe set-back for UKIP.
For those, like me, who love by-elections Rochester and Strood is a contest to savour. My guess is that the next polling will be after the Tory primary has been completed and the survey can name the main candidates.