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Who got closest to LAB’s winning margin of 18.36% in South Yorks?

1/11/2014 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

pic.twitter.com/1liyREzEHr — PolPics (@PolPics) November 1, 2014 Time to claim your prize The final result in Thursday South Yorkshire PCC by-elections had LAB ahead of UKIP by 18.36%. If you think that you are near please submit your claim by 1800 tomorrow to Competitions@politicalbetting.com. The winner will receive a copy of the new book edited by Philip Cowley and Rob Ford “Sex Lies & The Ballot Box” which was launched this week and has attracted a fair bit of publicity….

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Labour’s melting firewall: almost a third of LD switchers have since left since 2012

1/11/2014 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Introducing the new swing voters: Purple Labourites and Rainbow Liberals For a long time it looked as if two factors were going to deliver the keys to Downing Street to Ed Miliband. The first was that in the first six months of the parliament, around two-fifths of the Lib Dems’ 2010 vote switched to Labour and appeared firmly embedded there. The second was that a little later, starting in 2012, an increasing share of the Conservatives’ 2010 vote was peeling…

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Local By-Election Results: October 30th 2014

1/11/2014 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Canvey Island East on Castle Point (Canvey Island Independent Defence) Result: Independent 389 (39% +23%), Canvey Island Independent 323 (32% -16%), Conservative 208 (21% -2%), Labour 76 (8% -5%) Independent GAIN from Canvey Island Independent with a majority of 66 (7%) on a swing of 20% from Canvey Island Independent to Independent Sandsfield East on Neath and Port Talbot (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 641 (61% +8%), UKIP 361 (34%), Conservative 47 (4%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 280 (27%)…

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EXCLUSIVE: Survation has Mark Reckless moving to a 15% lead in Rochester

31/10/2014 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

The local NHS rather than immigration the top issue for Rochester voters ahead of by-election. See Survation chart pic.twitter.com/lwBuP0ntNe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2014 Some good news for UKIP after its PCC by-election flop There’s a new voting intention poll by Survation for the Unite union of Rochester & Strood. The latest shares (with change in brackets since firm’s last poll on 5 October for Mail on Sunday): CON 33% (+2), LAB 16% (-9), LD 1% (-2), UKIP…

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New Survation Rochester poll will be published here after 6pm

31/10/2014 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

This will be the third public poll since the by election was called and the first two have had UKIP in the lead by reasonable margins. Watch this space

After yesterday’s dramatic Scottish polls LAB braces itself for the South Yorks PCC result

31/10/2014 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

UKIP poster S Yorks PCC election pic.twitter.com/KJCY4epfQw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2014 Is this another victory for the purples? The big news this morning should come from South Yorkshire where counting takes place in the Police and Crime Commissioner by-election – only the second to be held since these new elected positions were created two years ago. This has been set against the background of the Rotherham scandal which UKIP (see above) has been featuring strongly in its…

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More gloom for Scottish LAB from YouGov – but not quite as bad as Ipsos-MORI

30/10/2014 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Times/YouGov Scotland: How much do you trust: Nicola Sturgeon: 48% Gordon Brown: 37% Jim Murphy: 24% David Cameron: 19% Ed Miliband: 15% — Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) October 30, 2014 Times/YouGov Scotland How much do you trust Ed Miliband now: (compared with Sept 17) Total Trust: 15% (25%) Total not Trust: 80% (67%) — Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) October 30, 2014 Whilst the SNP lead and share of the vote isn’t as impressive as the Ipsos-Mori figures, they will still be delighted with these figures and Labour…

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Local By-Election Preview : October 30th 2014

30/10/2014 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Canvey Island East on Castle Point (Canvey Island Independent Defence) Result of council at last election (2014): Conservatives 20, Canvey Island Independents 16, United Kingdom Independence Party 5 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 1) Result of ward at last election (2012): Canvey Island Independent 595 (48%), Conservative 291 (23%), Independent 195 (16%), Labour 158 (13%) Candidates duly nominated: Colin Letchford (Ind), Chas Mumford (Con), John Payne (Canvey Island Independent), Jackie Reilly (Lab) Castle Point Conservatives must be scratching their…

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