If the Tories get a good turnout in the Rochester all postal primary it’ll be a pointer to the by-election itself

If the Tories get a good turnout in the Rochester all postal primary it’ll be a pointer to the by-election itself

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Cllrs Anna Firth and Kelly Tolworth: the CON contenders in the all postal primary to be candidate in Rochester pic.twitter.com/ct6a9BRni3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 21, 2014 But what is good – this is a by-election first? On Thursday we’ll get the results of the unique all postal primary that the Tories have carried out to choose their Candidate for the November 20th Rochester & Strood by-election. This is the first time that any party has chosen a by-election candidate…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk, It Only Takes A Minute to delurk, I’m sure you’ll Shine with your contributions. Never Forget, we were all lurkers once. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Polls can shape reality, not just reflect it. The pollsters and the…

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The Lib Dems fall into 5th place in this week’s Ashcroft National phone poll

The Lib Dems fall into 5th place in this week’s Ashcroft National phone poll

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Voting intention with changes in this week's ANP: pic.twitter.com/TfFoYgkYzw — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) October 20, 2014 Earlier the Populus had Lab 36 (+1), Con 34 (+1), LD 9 (-1), UKIP 13 (-1) GRN 5 (+1) This 3% jump in a single week is a remarkable move by the Greens who now seem to be taking support from across the board but most particularly LAB and the LDs which could conceivably help the Tories in the battlegrounds. Like all moves that…

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Polling analysis: Rochester is a far far bigger challenge for UKIP than Clacton

Polling analysis: Rochester is a far far bigger challenge for UKIP than Clacton

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UKIP is not winning the 2010 Tory vote like it did in Clacton Reckless has nothing like the personal support as Carswell The outcome could be on a knife-edge I’ve become totally absorbed by the Rochester by-election the outcome of which, either way, will have a dramatic affect on the political environment in the six months to the May 7th general election. Over the weekend I’ve had a look again at the only poll so far which was from Survation….

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Andy Burnham rules out standing for the LAB leadership – get your money on Andy Burnham

Andy Burnham rules out standing for the LAB leadership – get your money on Andy Burnham

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EdM’s successor? Could be In the closing seconds of his interview on the Marr show this morning the shadow health secretary and 2010 leadership contender, Andy Burnham, was asked if he’d rule out standing the the job “in due course”. His denial was, to me, less than convincing. He’s come on a lot since his first leadership bid and I was quite impressed with the way he handled the interview. Both Ladbrokes and PaddyPower have him at 6/1. If EdM…

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When ComRes tested impact of prompting for UKIP the views of women barely changed. Male support however jumped by 8%

When ComRes tested impact of prompting for UKIP the views of women barely changed. Male support however jumped by 8%

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Two pollsters, three polls, and UKIP shares between 16% and 24% With all eyes on UKIP polling shares following their by election successes the online survey by ComRes for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror carried out a test to see whether, as many purple enthusiasts argue, their shares are understated by firms that don’t specifically prompt for the party. So the ComRes sample was split in two with the first using the conventional approach and the second including…

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If Stephen Fisher’s latest GE15 forecast is right LAB could win most seats with just 31.3% of the vote

If Stephen Fisher’s latest GE15 forecast is right LAB could win most seats with just 31.3% of the vote

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Latest GE15 forecast from Oxford's @StephenDFisher has CON winning most votes with LAB most seats pic.twitter.com/B8MJIVMc8W — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 18, 2014 CON with 2.7% more votes in the forecast get 7 fewer seats We’ve been here before and we’ll be here many times in the next six months – the way that on national vote shares at least the “system” seems to favour LAB so much. The latest from Oxford’s Stephen Fisher is in the panel above which…

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A Con-UKIP electoral pact? Forget it. It isn’t going to happen

A Con-UKIP electoral pact? Forget it. It isn’t going to happen

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Too much pushes the blues and purples apart Split parties do not win elections, so the saying goes.  Nor, by extension, do parties whose natural support base is divided between parties, particularly under FPTP – which is why from time to time we hear calls from some on the right-of-centre for an electoral pact between the Conservatives and UKIP, who look at the 45-50% that the two parties poll between them and dream of landslide governments rather than impotent oppositions. …

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