If Thursday’s S Yorkshire PCC by election is close then CON voters’ 2nd preferences could push the purples across the line

If Thursday’s S Yorkshire PCC by election is close then CON voters’ 2nd preferences could push the purples across the line

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South Yorkshire and the 2012 PCC election result. pic.twitter.com/euAeJCdJfo — Britain Elects (@britainelects) September 18, 2014 The blues surely want UKIP to be stopped even if that means LAB winning Looking at the result 2 years ago for the South Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner the outcome of Thursday’s by election appears to be a foregone conclusion – a LAB HOLD on an even lower turnout. But the dramatic and worrying events in Rotherham combined with the UKIP surge so…

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No Overall Majority now an even hotter favourite for GE15

No Overall Majority now an even hotter favourite for GE15

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No Overall Majority now a 51% chance on the Betfair exchange – see trend pic.twitter.com/1xJhh3rO0s — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2014 @MSmithsonPB We have the probability of no overall majority at 81%. Even those reduced odds look like a good deal. — Election Forecast UK (@Election4castUK) October 26, 2014 It really is hard to argue against The coming general election really is quite extraordinary. I can’t recall a time ever when all the main political parties and their leaders…

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LAB heavyweight Jim Murphy becomes the 2-5 favourite to be next Scottish LAB leader

LAB heavyweight Jim Murphy becomes the 2-5 favourite to be next Scottish LAB leader

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Could the ex-LAB defence & Scottish Sec, Jim Murphy solve his party's Scottish crisis? pic.twitter.com/Q6lGRgLNU2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2014 There are 41 Scottish LAB seats at stake The key fact to remember when discussing the impact of Scotland on UK politics is that there are 59 seats north of the border of which LAB hold 41. So anything that could weaken the party in the eyes of Scottish voters could have a big impact on GE15. Any…

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The battle does seem to be getting tighter: Both tonight’s online panel polls have CON & LAB on 33% each

The battle does seem to be getting tighter: Both tonight’s online panel polls have CON & LAB on 33% each

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Tonight's YouGov for S Times sees LAB & CON once again level pegging. CON 33%-1 LAB 33% -1 UKIP 16% +1 LD 7% +1 GRN 6% = — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2014 CON & LAB level pegging in tonight's Opininum poll for Observer Con 33+5 Lab 33-2 Ukip 18+1 LD 6%-3 GRN 4= SNP 4= — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2014 But the big political news.. The big political news tonight on sex lives of party supporters http://t.co/SlJXte7iZD pic.twitter.com/JhBdzktZGt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2014 More headlines…

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Labour could be in trouble in the South Yorkshire PCC by-election

Labour could be in trouble in the South Yorkshire PCC by-election

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LAB could be in trouble in S Yorks PCC by-election – ideal for UKIP? William Hill http://t.co/orbZ1dFWfn odds pic.twitter.com/UygijnUQww — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2014 Startling anti-Labour Ukip ad in Rotherham @JaneCollinsMEP Unveiled new poster with Jack Clarkson, UKIP PCC Candidate pic.twitter.com/82311tORgz — May2015 (@May2015NS) October 25, 2014 A bet on UKIP at 11/8 might be good move Over the past few days I’ve had a couple of reports about UKIP in Thursday’s South Yorkshire PCC by-election. This is,…

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The Westminster Big Three: zen-like serenity or zombies in action?

The Westminster Big Three: zen-like serenity or zombies in action?

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pic.twitter.com/jIwcoQCiPR — PolPics (@PolPics) October 25, 2014 How come poor CON/LAB/LD polls are being accepted so readily? Time was when you could be reasonably sure that a party struggling in the polls would lead inevitably to speculation about its leader’s position.  The media would talk about it, backbench MPs would talk about it and cabinet or shadow cabinet members would let their friends talk about it.  What is remarkable about the last few years is that despite unprecedented combined unpopularity…

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Best tip on PB in the past year: UKIP at 40-1 to win Cambourne and Redruth

Best tip on PB in the past year: UKIP at 40-1 to win Cambourne and Redruth

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To whoever suggested this my thanks I’ve just been reviewing my current open political bets and one, which I’d completely forgotten about, was UKIP to win Cambourne & Redruth at an amazing 40/1. It was placed with PaddyPower a week before Christmas. My recall is that this came out of a discussion one evening and I think Peter the Punter was involved. If I’ve named the wrong person then my apologies. Five months after that bet an Ashcroft poll of…

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Gains for LAB, CON and SNP in this week’s council by-elections

Gains for LAB, CON and SNP in this week’s council by-elections

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Oban North and Lorn on Argyll and Bute (Ind Defence) Result: Scottish National Party 1,090 (41% +16%), Independent 629 (24% +1%), Labour 530 (20% -2%), Conservative 415 (16% -2%) SNP lead of 461 (17%) on the first count on a swing of 8% from Independent to SNP, SNP GAIN from Independent on the fourth count Rogate on Chichester (Con Defence) Result: Conservatives 342 (71% -20%), UKIP 138 (29%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 204 (42%) on a swing of…

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