The Westminster Big Three: zen-like serenity or zombies in action?

The Westminster Big Three: zen-like serenity or zombies in action?

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pic.twitter.com/jIwcoQCiPR — PolPics (@PolPics) October 25, 2014 How come poor CON/LAB/LD polls are being accepted so readily? Time was when you could be reasonably sure that a party struggling in the polls would lead inevitably to speculation about its leader’s position.  The media would talk about it, backbench MPs would talk about it and cabinet or shadow cabinet members would let their friends talk about it.  What is remarkable about the last few years is that despite unprecedented combined unpopularity…

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Best tip on PB in the past year: UKIP at 40-1 to win Cambourne and Redruth

Best tip on PB in the past year: UKIP at 40-1 to win Cambourne and Redruth

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To whoever suggested this my thanks I’ve just been reviewing my current open political bets and one, which I’d completely forgotten about, was UKIP to win Cambourne & Redruth at an amazing 40/1. It was placed with PaddyPower a week before Christmas. My recall is that this came out of a discussion one evening and I think Peter the Punter was involved. If I’ve named the wrong person then my apologies. Five months after that bet an Ashcroft poll of…

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Gains for LAB, CON and SNP in this week’s council by-elections

Gains for LAB, CON and SNP in this week’s council by-elections

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Oban North and Lorn on Argyll and Bute (Ind Defence) Result: Scottish National Party 1,090 (41% +16%), Independent 629 (24% +1%), Labour 530 (20% -2%), Conservative 415 (16% -2%) SNP lead of 461 (17%) on the first count on a swing of 8% from Independent to SNP, SNP GAIN from Independent on the fourth count Rogate on Chichester (Con Defence) Result: Conservatives 342 (71% -20%), UKIP 138 (29%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 204 (42%) on a swing of…

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The great CON Rochester primary mystery – how the reported turnout of 4,000 became 5,688

The great CON Rochester primary mystery – how the reported turnout of 4,000 became 5,688

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Why aren’t we getting the full numbers like in Totnes in 2009? Totnes CON primary result 2009. All vote detail including spoilt ballots. Why not same for Rochester one? pic.twitter.com/yrKclLtJN7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 24, 2014 The first news that all was not well with the CON Rochester primary was this report, now not on the Spectator site, from the usually well informed Isabel Hardman. How the Speccie's Isabel Hardman first reported Rochester CON primary result. pic.twitter.com/iDo1h9LhCz — Mike…

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Local By-Election Preview : October 23rd 2014

Local By-Election Preview : October 23rd 2014

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Oban North and Lorn on Argyll and Bute (Ind Defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Independents 15, Scottish National Party 13, Conservatives 4, Liberal Democrats 4 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 3) Result of last election to ward (2014): Scottish National Party 595 (25%), Independent 548 (23%), Labour 526 (22%), Conservatives 445 (18%), Independent 301 (12%). Candidates duly nominated: Kieron Green (Lab), Stephanie Irvine (Ind), Iain Maclean (SNP), Andrew Vennard (Con) The SNP will be hoping that…

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UPDATED: Just 5,688 of Rochester’s 70k+ electors took part in the Tory primary and the winner got it by less than 1%

UPDATED: Just 5,688 of Rochester’s 70k+ electors took part in the Tory primary and the winner got it by less than 1%

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@jameschappers Given that each of the 70k+ electors got a reported THREE mailings 5,588 ballots returned still makes it a flop — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2014 The earlier Spectator report proved to an underestimate The reported turnout of 4000 in the Rochester Tory primary is a disaster for the party given the efforts put into it pic.twitter.com/bPJAMgYGHq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2014 By comparison with low turn-out in Rochester Conservative primary, 16,497 people voted in Totnes…

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After the ComRes Rochester poll UKIP becomes an even firmer betting favourite

After the ComRes Rochester poll UKIP becomes an even firmer betting favourite

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UKIP price moves up sharply on the Betfair exchange Rochester market. Now an 80% chance pic.twitter.com/hzXnTzgtFx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2014 Next we’ll see polls with the candidates named Amazing to recall that two and a half weeks ago the Tories had a brief spell as favourite on the Rochester betting markets. Then came the first poll from Survation which had a 9% UKIP lead and now we have the ComRes 13% one. It’s a brave punter who…

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Generally the oldies are the key group for UKIP yet in the ComRes Rochester poll they give Reckless a lead of just 1%

Generally the oldies are the key group for UKIP yet in the ComRes Rochester poll they give Reckless a lead of just 1%

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Most worrying numbers for UKIP from the ComRes Rochester poll: Amongst the oldies Reckless is only 1% ahead pic.twitter.com/jcYxvNYhwO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2014 Looking more closely at the numbers Let there be no doubt – the UKIP donor funded ComRes Rochester poll was terrible news for the Tories coming as it has just before the party announces the result of its all-postal primary on who should be the candidate. Looking closely at the ComRes data two demographic…

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