UKIP price moves up sharply on the Betfair exchange Rochester market. Now an 80% chance pic.twitter.com/hzXnTzgtFx
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2014
Next we’ll see polls with the candidates named
Amazing to recall that two and a half weeks ago the Tories had a brief spell as favourite on the Rochester betting markets. Then came the first poll from Survation which had a 9% UKIP lead and now we have the ComRes 13% one.
It’s a brave punter who in these circumstances bets against the polling and inevitably the UKIP price has tightened.
The only things that will budge this are developments that’ll point to the battle being tighter than is currently seen.
This evening we’ll get news of the Tory all postal primary. If the turnout is reasonable then it might give the blues a boost. What they will have from this evening is a candidate that they will claim has a mandate because of the way she’s been selected.
The next thing I’m hoping to see is a poll with all the candidates being named.
Too often we look at these thing in terms of party battles alone when in by elections in particular candidates can matter enormously. The government of the country is not at stake and people are voting for an individual.
So far the great single constituency pollster, Lord Ashcroft, has yet to dip his toe into the Rochester water. Surely an early survey from him is not far off?