Predict Thursday’s South Yorkshire PCC by-election and win the political book that everybody’s talking about

Predict Thursday’s South Yorkshire PCC by-election and win the political book that everybody’s talking about

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pic.twitter.com/VFY8BtH0Cw — PolPics (@PolPics) October 28, 2014 Which party will win and what’ll be the winning percentage margin? Last night I attended a splendid book launch for the book by the academic duo of Phil Cowley and Rob Rord featured above. Extracts have received a fair bit of coverage in the past couple of days particularly on the sexual traits of different party supporters. The book is a compendium if fascinating political tales aimed, I’d suggest, at the political geek…

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Why CON could still be losing seats to LAB even if it manages to get a 6% lead

Why CON could still be losing seats to LAB even if it manages to get a 6% lead

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The first target for the blues – to be doing better than last time At GE2010 the Conservatives had a GB national vote share of 37% which was 7.3% bigger than Labour’s total of 29.7%. So under a uniform national swing CON needs to be ahead by that margin simply to stop losing seats to LAB. That is the starting point for the party at GE15 – to do at least as well as they did last time. Thus it…

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Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy sees LAB drop 5 and UKIP up 4

Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy sees LAB drop 5 and UKIP up 4

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4 out of the five last polls have been level-pegging It’s been a big polling day with three surveys already all of them pointing to the fact that the race has got very tight. Just published is the ComRes phone poll for the Indy which has CON 30+1, LAB 30-5, LD 9-1, UKIP 19+4, GRN 4= The UKIP figure is a high for ComRes phone polls and the 30% LAB share equals what the party was on at the last…

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Neil Findlay – Henry G Manson’s tip for next Scottish LAB lead

Neil Findlay – Henry G Manson’s tip for next Scottish LAB lead

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Neil Findlay – a possible runner in Scots LAB leadership race pic.twitter.com/whhZWYLUSD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 27, 2014 Look beyond Westminster for likely contenders So far the bookmakers appear to have worked on the assumption that it was there for the taking for the so-called Westminster ‘big beasts’ of Gordon Brown and Jim Murphy with Anas Sarwar the Scottish Labour Deputy the main MSP contender. However with both Brown and Sarwar now ruling themselves out, the field opens considerably….

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If Thursday’s S Yorkshire PCC by election is close then CON voters’ 2nd preferences could push the purples across the line

If Thursday’s S Yorkshire PCC by election is close then CON voters’ 2nd preferences could push the purples across the line

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South Yorkshire and the 2012 PCC election result. pic.twitter.com/euAeJCdJfo — Britain Elects (@britainelects) September 18, 2014 The blues surely want UKIP to be stopped even if that means LAB winning Looking at the result 2 years ago for the South Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner the outcome of Thursday’s by election appears to be a foregone conclusion – a LAB HOLD on an even lower turnout. But the dramatic and worrying events in Rotherham combined with the UKIP surge so…

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No Overall Majority now an even hotter favourite for GE15

No Overall Majority now an even hotter favourite for GE15

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No Overall Majority now a 51% chance on the Betfair exchange – see trend pic.twitter.com/1xJhh3rO0s — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2014 @MSmithsonPB We have the probability of no overall majority at 81%. Even those reduced odds look like a good deal. — Election Forecast UK (@Election4castUK) October 26, 2014 It really is hard to argue against The coming general election really is quite extraordinary. I can’t recall a time ever when all the main political parties and their leaders…

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LAB heavyweight Jim Murphy becomes the 2-5 favourite to be next Scottish LAB leader

LAB heavyweight Jim Murphy becomes the 2-5 favourite to be next Scottish LAB leader

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Could the ex-LAB defence & Scottish Sec, Jim Murphy solve his party's Scottish crisis? pic.twitter.com/Q6lGRgLNU2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2014 There are 41 Scottish LAB seats at stake The key fact to remember when discussing the impact of Scotland on UK politics is that there are 59 seats north of the border of which LAB hold 41. So anything that could weaken the party in the eyes of Scottish voters could have a big impact on GE15. Any…

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The battle does seem to be getting tighter: Both tonight’s online panel polls have CON & LAB on 33% each

The battle does seem to be getting tighter: Both tonight’s online panel polls have CON & LAB on 33% each

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Tonight's YouGov for S Times sees LAB & CON once again level pegging. CON 33%-1 LAB 33% -1 UKIP 16% +1 LD 7% +1 GRN 6% = — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2014 CON & LAB level pegging in tonight's Opininum poll for Observer Con 33+5 Lab 33-2 Ukip 18+1 LD 6%-3 GRN 4= SNP 4= — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2014 But the big political news.. The big political news tonight on sex lives of party supporters http://t.co/SlJXte7iZD pic.twitter.com/JhBdzktZGt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2014 More headlines…

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