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While that remains the Tories are heading for defeat After a massive polling Saturday and the ongoing speculation about Ed Miliband let’s step back for a moment and look at the wider picture. The chart above is from the latest batch of Lord Ashcroft’s CON-LAB marginals polling with an aggregate sample about three times as large as all the data that came out overnight. It highlights the big development that appears not to be going away – the rise of…

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The EU Budget deal has moved the story on and taken the pressure off If you have bad news to get out, then Friday evening is as good a time as any to do it. MPs have gone back to their constituencies, the public is paying less attention and it falls in that gap between the weekday and weekend media. The timing of the announcement that the government is to pay the £1.7bn demanded by the EU – late, in…

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Mevagissey on Cornwall (Lab Defence) Result: Conservative 348 (32% +8%), UKIP 281 (26% -2%), Labour 204 (19% -11%), Liberal Democrats 197 (18% +4%), Greens 50 (5% -2%) Conservative GAIN from Labour with a majority of 67 (6%) on a swing of 5% from UKIP to Conservative Bilton on Rugby (Con Defence) Result: Conservatives 668 (42%), UKIP 325 (20%), Liberal Democrats 280 (18%), Labour 212 (13%), Independent 60 (4%), Greens 37 (2%), TUSC 10 (1%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of…

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