Ed Miliband could be in trouble in Doncaster
Released tomorrow polling in Doncaster North showing UKIP 2nd so if Tories tactically vote for UKIP Miliband loses #votetorygetlabour! — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) November 26, 2014
From YouGov: How would Jesus view immigration, gay marriage, renationalising the railways and the death penalty
Don't quite know what to make of this YouGov polling. How would Jesus view immigration & gay marriage? pic.twitter.com/OqnrugmJ9k — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 26, 2014 By 38%-6% the YouGov sample say Jesus would support the renationalisation of the railways. 49% said he'd oppose death penalty, 17% support — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 26, 2014 The polling’s certainly unique though I’m unsure about what it tells us
Kippers least likely to have felt the recovery – Tories the most likely
No surprise there then but a big challenge for the coalition The chart is based on aggregate data for Populus polls last month and is broadly in line with what we seen from other pollsters. Those currently saying they’ll vote UKIP have the most negative views about the recovery. Given that both coalition partners will be trying to claim credit for what’s happened this message is going to be hard to get across to the biggest group of swing voters….
Nighthawks is now open
Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’re Footloose, and fancy free tonight, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight, don’t worry, delurking isn’t the Highway to The Danger Zone. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) The spiral of silence in polling Has Theresa May just declared war on Downing…
And the winner of the PB Rochester and Strood competition is…..
N.Simms with the winning entry “UKIP by 7.26%” This was 0.02% short of the actual margin of 7.28% and the winner got closest. Congratulations. The winner will receive a copy of the new book edited by Philip Cowley and Rob Ford “Sex Lies & The Ballot Box” which was launched earlier this month and has attracted a fair bit of publicity. Congratulations. Thanks to Mark Hopkins of www.nojam.com for creating the structure for this competition. It has worked well and…
Scoping the scale and geography of Labour’s Scottish collapse – hopefully we’ll get some constituency polling this week
One of the big unknowns about GE2015 is how Labour is going to fare in Scotland where at GE2010 it retained 41 of the 59 Westminster seats. Clearly anything that could erode that total could have massive impact on the overall outcome. There have only been three Scotland only polls in the past eight weeks all of them suggesting that EdM’s party is in serious trouble and could possibly lose a lot of seats while it is making inroads in…
Labour’s Scottish crisis is masking what could be even more significant – the Tory collapse in England
By my reckoning this is an 8.5% CON-LAB swing A great feature of the weekly Ashcroft National Poll is that it shows a separate voting split for England where 533 of the 650 constituencies are including the vast bulk of the marginals. This was “won” by Cameron’s Conservatives overwhelmingly in 2010 making net gains of more than 90 and forming the bedrock of their overall positive outcome. The party secured 39.2% of the English vote against Labour’s 28.1. The poll…
The Ashcroft phone poll, like Populus this morning, has CON trailing by 5%
But these are the most dramatic figures of all In England where 533 of the 650 seats are @LordAshcroft has CON 28 LAB 34 LD 6 UKIP 22 GRN 8 So UKIP just 6% behind CON — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2014 This is starting to get serious for the blue team As usual at 4pm on Monday Lord Ashcroft publishes his latest weekly national phone poll and today’s show the LAB lead moving to 5%. The followed this morning’s Monday Populus online poll that…