Harnessing envy and resentment could be the key to GE15

Harnessing envy and resentment could be the key to GE15

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SNP GE15 seats move up nearly 2 on the Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR spread betting market. See latest pic.twitter.com/pduuxgRE9K — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 28, 2014 Never mind “we’re all in it together”: eat the rich (or foreigners)! Blame is of almost limitless supply in politics but that’s not to say it doesn’t retain significant value if fashioned with skill. Two policy announcements this week gave ample good indication that both Labour and the Conservatives are more than willing to make…

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The week’s Local By-Election Results : Gains for SNP, UKIP and CON

The week’s Local By-Election Results : Gains for SNP, UKIP and CON

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East Riding of Yorkshire Bridlington Central and Old Town Result: UKIP 401 (31%), Conservative 352 (27%), Dealtry (Independent) 217 (17%), Dixon (Independent) 214 (16%), Tate (Independent) 116 (9%) UKIP GAIN from Social Democrat with a majority of 49 (4%) Total Independent vote: 547 (42%) Howdenshire Result: Conservative 1,020 (46%), UKIP 891 (40%), Labour 298 (13%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 129 (6%) Willerby and Kirk Ella Result: Conservative 1,522 (56%), UKIP 699 (26%), Labour 515 (19%) Conservative HOLD with…

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There are signs that Farage could be having second thoughts about standing in Thanet S

There are signs that Farage could be having second thoughts about standing in Thanet S

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pic.twitter.com/7g0LyKdhLo — PolPics (@PolPics) November 28, 2014 What current MP Tweeted yesterday “@FarageNo: @MSmithsonPB @LordAshcroft That's what happens when you don't visit the constituency in 3 months.” #desperatelyseekingNigel — Laura Sandys (@LauraSandysMP) November 27, 2014 At the PB party a week ago I was somewhat surprised at being told by at least two kippers that it wasn’t entirely certain that Nigel Farage was going to stand in the Thanet South constituency on May 7th. I, and apparently most punters, thought…

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If the LDs hold on to as many seats as the latest polling suggests then Clegg should thank NO2AV

If the LDs hold on to as many seats as the latest polling suggests then Clegg should thank NO2AV

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Remember when FPTP was seen as way of preventing coalitions? Just looking through the latest constituency polling from Lord Ashcroft and one thing is apparent – the LDs look set to hang on to so many of their CON facing marginals because the AV referendum in 2011 produced a NO victory. In almost all of the seats the yellows look set to retain their vote share will be in the thirties. They’ve lost a lot of votes since the heady…

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Local By-Election Preview : November 27th 2014

Local By-Election Preview : November 27th 2014

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(puffing) My word, (panting) and Hercules thought he had a tough time with his twelve labours. He ought to try local by-elections on for size. Finding the wards that had by-elections this week was a doddle, but my goodness, finding the results last time and the candidates standing for election, wooh!. It can really take it out on a person let me tell you. And yes, your eyes are not deceiving you that is thirteen local by-elections look like with…

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Farage in trouble in Thanet S while Clegg could be struggling in Sheffield Hallam

Farage in trouble in Thanet S while Clegg could be struggling in Sheffield Hallam

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Main opposition party leader seat polling from @Lord Ashcroft pic.twitter.com/NtRm0hCnih — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2014 But elsewhere latest Ashcroft polls good for LDs LDs 9% lead over CON in latest batch @LordAshcroft LD held seat polls CON 27 LAB 13 LD 36 UKIP 17 GRN 5 pic.twitter.com/ZsXj9yTfFU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2014 Interesting in @LordAshcroft polls Lib Dems holding 9/11 seats where Tories 2nd. Suggests their spin on digging in not just puff — Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) November 27, 2014 Seat-by-seat…

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The ComRes marginals’ poll would be a lot more valuable if there had been a 2 stage voting question

The ComRes marginals’ poll would be a lot more valuable if there had been a 2 stage voting question

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From last night the latest ComRes/ITV news poll of 40 CON-LAB marginals Con  31% (+1)    Lab 39% (-2) LD 7% (+1) UKIP 18% (+1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2014 It’s important to tease out incumbency & tactical elements I was tied up last night when the ComRes/ITV online marginals poll was published as well as the latest YouGov which has the Tories back with a 1% lead. The ComRes poll with a sample of a thousand questioned online is in 40 seats where at…

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