From last night the latest ComRes/ITV news poll of 40 CON-LAB marginals ConÂ Â 31% (+1)Â Â Â LabÂ 39% (-2) LD 7% (+1) UKIPÂ 18% (+1)
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2014
It’s important to tease out incumbency & tactical elements
I was tied up last night when the ComRes/ITV online marginals poll was published as well as the latest YouGov which has the Tories back with a 1% lead.
The ComRes poll with a sample of a thousand questioned online is in 40 seats where at GE10 the two main parties were overall level pegging. So it takes in both CON and LAB held marginals.
The changes are broadly in line with what we have been seeing in national polls so did not greatly add to our understanding.
What the pollster could have done to make this a lot more valuable was to have used the two-stage voting intention question that was first deployed in Politicshome polling ahead of GE10. After the standard party choice question you ask those sampled to think specifically of their own constituency.
This, as we are seeing in the Lord A single seat polling can produce very different outcomes. For key factors which really matter are incumbency and tactical voting.
Later today we are promised the next batch of Ashcroft polling of marginal seats each with 1k samples. My guess is that this will focus on CON held seats that were held with majorties of 7%+.
There’s also the possibility of some Scottish seats as well the Ed Miliband’s Doncaster North where UKIP is strong.
Last night’s YouGov saw the Tories with a 1% lead and the Greens ahead of the LDs.
Update: Cons lead at 1 – Latest YouGov / The Sun results 26th November – Con 33%, Lab 32%, LD 6%, UKIP 16%; APP -26 http://t.co/5towqnQQxF
— YouGov (@YouGov) November 27, 2014