There are signs that Farage could be having second thoughts about standing in Thanet S

There are signs that Farage could be having second thoughts about standing in Thanet S

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pic.twitter.com/7g0LyKdhLo — PolPics (@PolPics) November 28, 2014 What current MP Tweeted yesterday “@FarageNo: @MSmithsonPB @LordAshcroft That's what happens when you don't visit the constituency in 3 months.” #desperatelyseekingNigel — Laura Sandys (@LauraSandysMP) November 27, 2014 At the PB party a week ago I was somewhat surprised at being told by at least two kippers that it wasn’t entirely certain that Nigel Farage was going to stand in the Thanet South constituency on May 7th. I, and apparently most punters, thought…

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If the LDs hold on to as many seats as the latest polling suggests then Clegg should thank NO2AV

If the LDs hold on to as many seats as the latest polling suggests then Clegg should thank NO2AV

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Remember when FPTP was seen as way of preventing coalitions? Just looking through the latest constituency polling from Lord Ashcroft and one thing is apparent – the LDs look set to hang on to so many of their CON facing marginals because the AV referendum in 2011 produced a NO victory. In almost all of the seats the yellows look set to retain their vote share will be in the thirties. They’ve lost a lot of votes since the heady…

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Local By-Election Preview : November 27th 2014

Local By-Election Preview : November 27th 2014

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(puffing) My word, (panting) and Hercules thought he had a tough time with his twelve labours. He ought to try local by-elections on for size. Finding the wards that had by-elections this week was a doddle, but my goodness, finding the results last time and the candidates standing for election, wooh!. It can really take it out on a person let me tell you. And yes, your eyes are not deceiving you that is thirteen local by-elections look like with…

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Farage in trouble in Thanet S while Clegg could be struggling in Sheffield Hallam

Farage in trouble in Thanet S while Clegg could be struggling in Sheffield Hallam

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Main opposition party leader seat polling from @Lord Ashcroft pic.twitter.com/NtRm0hCnih — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2014 But elsewhere latest Ashcroft polls good for LDs LDs 9% lead over CON in latest batch @LordAshcroft LD held seat polls CON 27 LAB 13 LD 36 UKIP 17 GRN 5 pic.twitter.com/ZsXj9yTfFU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2014 Interesting in @LordAshcroft polls Lib Dems holding 9/11 seats where Tories 2nd. Suggests their spin on digging in not just puff — Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) November 27, 2014 Seat-by-seat…

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The ComRes marginals’ poll would be a lot more valuable if there had been a 2 stage voting question

The ComRes marginals’ poll would be a lot more valuable if there had been a 2 stage voting question

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From last night the latest ComRes/ITV news poll of 40 CON-LAB marginals Con  31% (+1)    Lab 39% (-2) LD 7% (+1) UKIP 18% (+1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2014 It’s important to tease out incumbency & tactical elements I was tied up last night when the ComRes/ITV online marginals poll was published as well as the latest YouGov which has the Tories back with a 1% lead. The ComRes poll with a sample of a thousand questioned online is in 40 seats where at…

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From YouGov: How would Jesus view immigration, gay marriage, renationalising the railways and the death penalty

From YouGov: How would Jesus view immigration, gay marriage, renationalising the railways and the death penalty

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Don't quite know what to make of this YouGov polling. How would Jesus view immigration & gay marriage? pic.twitter.com/OqnrugmJ9k — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 26, 2014 By 38%-6% the YouGov sample say Jesus would support the renationalisation of the railways. 49% said he'd oppose death penalty, 17% support — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 26, 2014 The polling’s certainly unique though I’m unsure about what it tells us

Kippers least likely to have felt the recovery – Tories the most likely

Kippers least likely to have felt the recovery – Tories the most likely

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No surprise there then but a big challenge for the coalition The chart is based on aggregate data for Populus polls last month and is broadly in line with what we seen from other pollsters. Those currently saying they’ll vote UKIP have the most negative views about the recovery. Given that both coalition partners will be trying to claim credit for what’s happened this message is going to be hard to get across to the biggest group of swing voters….

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