My special plea to those in the media responsible for commissioning opinion polls

My special plea to those in the media responsible for commissioning opinion polls

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The constant flow of GB-wide surveys is giving a distorted picture of what is going on Just about every day at the moment I find myself having to Tweet or write on PB that general elections are not decided by national party vote shares but by first past the post elections in 650 separate constituencies. This has never been the case more so than in what has for decades been regarded as Labour’s most important bastion – Scotland where 59…

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The key target for the Tories – those LAB voters in the marginals who are satisfied with Dave and want him as PM

The key target for the Tories – those LAB voters in the marginals who are satisfied with Dave and want him as PM

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The data in the chart above is from the aggregate 12k sample from the latest batch of Lord Ashcroft CON held LAB facing marginals to be published. I’ve highlighted four key groups who could influence the election in the most important seats of all – CON defences against LAB. The other reason I’ve chosen this polling is the overall sample size which which means that we can look at subsets with greater confidence. Those polled were asked to rate ED…

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PB’s November Poll Average: Labour down again but it’s Others on the up

PB’s November Poll Average: Labour down again but it’s Others on the up

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The Con-Lab gap drops to just 1% – the closest it’s been since Jan 2012 Convention says that as an election approaches, the public will put aside their flirtation with protest parties and return to the serious business of choosing a government for the country. Well, convention be damned. Five months today will be the last day of campaigning before the General Election yet far from returning to the traditional Westminster parties, voters continue to leave them in ever greater…

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On current polling the Tories will, surely, suffer net losses of more than 18 seats

On current polling the Tories will, surely, suffer net losses of more than 18 seats

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Latest Commons seats spreads from Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR see LAB -1 CON +1. Just 4 MP gap now pic.twitter.com/arQHjH3eUU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 5, 2014 For the first time there’s overlap in the Commons seat spread betting The Tories have made more progress on the SportingIndex Commos seat spread markets and the buy level is 285 MPs. Given the polling showing number of CON held seats with majorities up to 7.8% seeing LAB leads, the threat from UKIP, and…

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The extraordinary impact of Lord Ashcroft’s two stage voting question – keeping LD hopes alive

The extraordinary impact of Lord Ashcroft’s two stage voting question – keeping LD hopes alive

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Why the party that’s lost ¾ of its vote isn’t panicking One of the remarkable features of the past four and a half years of the coalition is that the party that appears to have suffered so much, the Lib Dems, has not panicked and appears to just shrug off one miserable national poll rating after another. This morning’s YouGov once again has them in fifth place behind with just 7% drastically down on the 23.7% GB share at GE10….

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Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : December 4th 2014

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : December 4th 2014

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Netherfield on Mansfield (Mansfield Independent Forum defence) Result of last election to council (2011): Labour 26, Mansfield Independents 10 (Labour majority of 16) Result of last election in ward (2011): Mansfield Independents 444 (51%), Labour 401 (46%), Liberal Democrats 34 (4%) Candidates duly nominated: Karen Seymour (TUSC), Sid Walker (UKIP), Sarah Wright (Lab) Ever since the scare that Labour had in 1987 (when the Conservatives came within 56 seats of winning), Labour’s majority in Mansfield constituency has increased to such…

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LAB down 2 seats, UKIP -0.5 as CON moves up on the GE15 spread markets

LAB down 2 seats, UKIP -0.5 as CON moves up on the GE15 spread markets

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Post Autumn Statement Commons seats spreads from Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR CON up 2/LAB & UKIP down pic.twitter.com/8h22hRhd9w — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2014 Punters think this’ll help the Tories The above prices were fixed this morning and have remained all day. Interesting that UKIP edges down a touch as well as LAB. This election remains a very difficult contest to call and it is hard to make a case to buy or sell at any of the above levels….

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