Latest polling from Thanet South has Farage trailing the Tories by 5% – yet in the betting he’s a 62% chance

Latest polling from Thanet South has Farage trailing the Tories by 5% – yet in the betting he’s a 62% chance

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A case methinks of hearts over heads As a general rule political betting prices and polling tend to run in parallel particularly in the constituencies. So when earlier this month Lord Ashcroft published his latest round there was a rush of activity when apparently obvious bargain appeared. One such one was Nigel Farage’s Thanet South where following the numbers being available the UKIP price of 2/5 eased to 5/6. An earlier Ashcroft poll had had Farage with a 3% lead….

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“The next CON leader will not be a white man” – Tory insider

“The next CON leader will not be a white man” – Tory insider

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Theresa May up 4% in ConHome party members’ next leader survey The comment in the heading for this post was made to me at a recent social event by someone I regard as a leading Tory insider. It certainly has a ring of truth about it given that the two contenders currently being talked about are Theresa May and Sajid Javid, the culture Secretary. This conversation took place before the latest ConHome findings from its regular party member surveys. Theresa…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you like political betting, welcome to PB, Nobody Does It Better than PB. If you’ve always been a lurker, why not delurk tonight, no one will think You’re So Vain for delurking. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Why 2015 is about marginal seats…

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Why UKIP is set to damage Tories a lot more than LAB at GE2015

Why UKIP is set to damage Tories a lot more than LAB at GE2015

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pic.twitter.com/7g0LyKdhLo — PolPics (@PolPics) November 28, 2014 LAB lost much of its traditional support long before the UKIP surge Today I’m off to London for a big event in Westminster to promote the GE2015 British Election Study – a huge academic imitative involving the universities of Manchester, Oxford and Nottingham that in the coming months will become an essential resource to all who follow politics closely. The rise and rise of UKIP is going to be a big focus and…

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Dave said to be coming under pressure to abandon the coalition now

Dave said to be coming under pressure to abandon the coalition now

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Abandon the LDs % govern alone, CON MPs tell DC – http://t.co/Ju6VB1uzZ6 But what'd that do to post GE15 relations? pic.twitter.com/8zPzaSxh02 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 8, 2014 Good idea or not? A short-term problem is that if the coalition broke down in circumstances like this then the blues would be seen as the “guilty party” and there might be a price to pay. Getting commons business through without the LD vote might be very tricky and the government could look…

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UKIP move up 3 to 19% in latest Lord Ashcroft phone poll

UKIP move up 3 to 19% in latest Lord Ashcroft phone poll

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LAB 31-1: CON 30=: LD 8+1: UKIP 19+3: GRN 5%-1 UKIP the main mover in this week's @LordAshcroft phone poll LAB 31-1: CON 30=: LD 8+1: UKIP 19+3: GRN 5%-1 pic.twitter.com/bRz4vZA8YR — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 8, 2014 How the alternative vote would have impacted on voting How AV might have impacted on election. Interesting data from @LordAshcroft pic.twitter.com/y7JphKsn77 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 8, 2014 Tories now level-pegging in England The England only-figures in today's @LordAshcroft poll see LAB &…

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LAB running just 3% behind SNP in Scotland according to the Populus November aggregate

LAB running just 3% behind SNP in Scotland according to the Populus November aggregate

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But Sturgeon’s party would be one short on seats Following my post yesterday about the woeful lack of polling data from what could be the most critical area of all at GE15, Scotland, a PBer contacted me to point out that Populus has resumed its excellent practice of issuing a full monthly data analysis from the eight or nine online surveys carried out in the previous month. What’s great about this is that you have a very large sample which…

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