After the most intensive polling week of the year the one thing that we haven’t got is clarity

After the most intensive polling week of the year the one thing that we haven’t got is clarity

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pic.twitter.com/WJ3lPQIUPB — PolPics (@PolPics) December 14, 2014 Following poor results for LAB from Ipsos-MORI & Lord Ashcroft YouGov ends the week with the party 5% ahead LAB lead moves to 5% in today's YouGov poll for the Sun LAB 35%, CON 30%, UKIP 16%, GRNS 8%, LD 6%2 Best for EdM's party for months — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 19, 2014 Four and a half months from the big day The week before Christmas is always an intensive one for…

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Local By-Election Preview : December 18th 2014

Local By-Election Preview : December 18th 2014

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St. James on Kingston upon Thames (Con defence) Result of council at last election (2014): Conservatives 28, Liberal Democrats 18, Labour 2 (Conservative majority of 8) Result of ward at last election (2014) : Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,250, 1,188, 1,082 Liberal Democrats 729, 719, 696 Labour 598, 494, 485 United Kingdom Independence Party 386, 361 Green 212 British National Party 100 Trade Unionist and Socialist 34 Candidates duly nominated: Jack CHEETHAM (Con), Stephen DUNKLING (Lab), Alex NELSON (Green), Ben…

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Farage joins the minus 20 leader dissatisfaction club

Farage joins the minus 20 leader dissatisfaction club

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Worrying trend here for Mr. Farage from @IpsosMORI pic.twitter.com/H2ZErRViIK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 18, 2014 All party leaders with net negatives (Clegg & Ed the worst) in latest @IpsosMORI satisfaction ratings pic.twitter.com/R3oF6QobZP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 18, 2014

Ipsos Mori sees the Tories retain their 3% lead

Ipsos Mori sees the Tories retain their 3% lead

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This month’s @IpsosMORI VI figures pic.twitter.com/0PGkWaGDGW — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) December 18, 2014 Whilst the headline figures appear to be the same as last month for the Tories and Labour, what will delight the Tories is prior to the certainty to vote filter being applied, last month the Tories and Labour were tied, this month, the Tories lead by 4% . Before the Tories get too excited, this poll sees them polling just over their 1997 nadir, and given…

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The latest Lord Ashcroft marginals poll is out

The latest Lord Ashcroft marginals poll is out

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Latest @LordAshcroft marginal polling pic.twitter.com/WGcCn3nui7 — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) December 18, 2014 The latest round of Lord Ashcroft marginal polling is out. He says Two types of constituencies feature in my last round of marginals polling for 2014. First, the next tranche of seats the Conservatives are defending from Labour; second, a selection of seats where Labour may be under threat from UKIP. I have also returned to the solitary Green constituency, Brighton Pavilion. I have just been on the…

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What makes Jim Murphy so dangerous to the SNP is that for the first time in years LAB has a credible alternative First Minister

What makes Jim Murphy so dangerous to the SNP is that for the first time in years LAB has a credible alternative First Minister

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Jim Murphy pic.twitter.com/rsChNCPY8q — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2014 Why I’ve now become an SNP seller It is worth recapping why we are where we are in Scotland. Back in early 2011 it looked as though Scottish LAB was in a position to make a return to power in Holyrood ahead of the Scottish Parliament elections that May. At the start of the year all the polling had the party well ahead so that by the March, with only…

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There’s an inexorable feeling that the next election will be just like 1992

There’s an inexorable feeling that the next election will be just like 1992

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Will the next US Presidential election could well be Bush v Clinton, again? The big news in last day was this tweet I am excited to announce I will actively explore the possibility of running for President of the United States: https://t.co/luY4lCF2cA. — Jeb Bush (@JebBush) December 16, 2014 Back in February I advised backing him as Republican Party Nominee at 10/1, he is now trading as low as 9/4 right now. A poll for NBC/WSJ found that Just 31%…

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Guardian ICM phone poll sees the Tories down 3 and the Lib Dems up 3

Guardian ICM phone poll sees the Tories down 3 and the Lib Dems up 3

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The Tories are down to their lowest share of the vote since May 2013 with ICM But the Lib Dems will be delighted as ICM is the third pollster this week to have them in double digits, two of them being phone pollsters. Guardian ICM phone poll makes grim reading for the Tories. But the Lib Dems are on the up. pic.twitter.com/vepvSt8G2r — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) December 17, 2014 But did George Osborne’s Autumn Statement contribute to the Tory…

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