Some good 2015 “leader going” odds here from William Hill
Some goods odds here William Hill http://t.co/orbZ1ewJDz pic.twitter.com/g6OEVnGGeK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 29, 2014
Maybe the whole idea of national voting intention polls has had its day
The one thing you can say as we enter election year is that there’s no consistent picture I’ve broken the final polls of 2014 into five broad areas for comparison. CON to LAB swing The most important measure and where there’s a huge variation from the Ipsos-MORI 2.65% swing to the TNS-BMRB and Opinium 7.15%. If it was the latter on May 7th then LAB would probably secure an overall majority even if it lost all but a handful of…
LAB has a better than 36% chance of winning most votes on May 7th
The Ladbrokes 7/4 is a good value bet Betting, as I always say, is not about making predictions but deciding whether the chances of something happening are better than the odds available. One that falls into that category at the moment is the 7/4 that Ladbrokes have on LAB winning most votes. The Tories are on 1/2. To my mind this is an over-reaction to events in Scotland where the LAB collapse since the IndyRef amounts to only about 1%…
LAB has 15% lead amongst 17-22 year olds – but they may not be on the register and are the least reliable supporters
LAB has 15% lead amongst 17-22 year olds in Opinium/Observer poll LAB 41 CON 26 GRN 19 LD 6 UKIP 3 http://t.co/4MfnKNPQp4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 27, 2014 After a battering in frecent Scottish polls Labour can take some comfort this morning from an Opinium poll of new voters across England, Scotland and Wales for the Observer that shows the party with a substantial lead. That’s fine except for THREE problems. First Mr. Cameron has a clear lead in approval ratings from this segment….
The CON, LD and GRN seats that LAB would hope to win to offset projected 38 losses to the SNP in Scotland
REVISED: LAB's top 38 targets based on swing required. pic.twitter.com/mQv32B0DAN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 27, 2014 @lukeakehurst But 32 of the LAB gains would be CON losses meaning that only LAB would need only 8 more gains from CON to be top party — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 27, 2014 @lukeakehurst But 32 of the LAB gains would be CON losses meaning that only LAB would need only 8 more gains from CON to be top party — Mike…
Curtice analysis of latest Scottish polling suggests that LAB could be down to 3 seats – the same as the LDs
There’s a great analysis by John Curtice this morning on the latest Scottish polls particularly the one out today from ICM for the Guardian. The whole article is well worth reading but the following is a key part when it comes to making Scottish Westminster seat projections:- “..What, however, this poll brings anew to the evidence is an estimate of how well the parties are doing in different types of seats in Scotland. Inevitably, these estimates are based on relatively…
Another online Scottish poll (this time from ICM) has SNP with big lead on GE15 voting intentions
ICM Scotland poll for Guardian follows other firms & has big GE15 lead for SNP CON 13% LAB 26% LD 6% SNP 43% UKIP 7% GRN 4%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 26, 2014 The pattern is very much the same with all the pollsters and this must be regarded as further good news for the SNP and very bad news for LAB given that it holds 41 of the 59 Scottish seats. As has been said many times the SNP surge could make things very…
For the Tories defending what they won in England in 2010 is the overwhelming objective
Commons research paper http://t.co/4lfyEygikj on GE10 result In England CON was 11.4% ahead pic.twitter.com/MKjtBOp2sE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 25, 2014 Why England only poll data will be so important The above is the result for England at the last election and shows how well the Tories did there and the scale of the challenge defending their position in May. Overall they “won” England by nearly 3m votes with a percentage lead over LAB of 11.4%. In terms of eats they…