— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 25, 2014
Why England only poll data will be so important
The above is the result for England at the last election and shows how well the Tories did there and the scale of the challenge defending their position in May.
Overall they “won” England by nearly 3m votes with a percentage lead over LAB of 11.4%. In terms of eats they had net gains of more than 90.
Hanging on to what they’ve got is going to be the key challenge and their main hope of gains will be from the LDs.
Recent England only data has the gap between the blues and reds at a much lowest level than what happened in 2010. On top of that there’s the threat from UKIP who look set to win few seats.
But it’s the impact of 2010 CON votes seeping to Farage’s party that will be most important. There are just signs in the marginals at least that faced with the prospect of a Miliband government some will return.
The reason the Tories have struggled against LAB is not because of blue red switchers. The latter has suffered less seepage to the purples and, of course, has done well from the collapse of the LDs.
At the moment I find hard to see how the Tories can get more than 280 seats overall which is the current sell level on the spread markets.