If you were think of betting on LAB following this afternoon’s Populus 5% lead – HOLD ON

If you were think of betting on LAB following this afternoon’s Populus 5% lead – HOLD ON

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Lord Ashcroft phone poll, just out, has the Tories 6% ahead I can’t recall a day when two polls came out showing a diametrically picture of how the next general election is looking. The main figures are in the chart. CON is 32% with Populus and 34% with Lord Ashcroft while Populus makes it 37% to LAB with Lord Ashcroft on 28%. Confused? So am I. The fieldwork for both polls took place during exactly the same time period –…

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Pricing in the Ed factor – a negative for Labour but how big a negative?

Pricing in the Ed factor – a negative for Labour but how big a negative?

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EdM on the Andrew Marr show pic.twitter.com/gArzupDgLA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015 The big unknown of this campaign & maybe we won’t find out till May 8th It is said that a key strategy of the Tories in the coming months will be to constantly remind voters that Ed Miliband is LAB leader and that if the party did win the election then he could end up as PM. I am sure that that is the right approach….

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Betfair punters rate Tory chances of an overall majority as being higher than a LAB but think that Labour will win more seats

Betfair punters rate Tory chances of an overall majority as being higher than a LAB but think that Labour will win more seats

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A CON majority rated as being just a tad more likely than a LAB one on Betfair pic.twitter.com/PrVP160EJm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015 But LAB to win most seats still marginal favourite On Betfair's "most seats" market LAB has very narrow lead over CON pic.twitter.com/7sAm9yGcpY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015 The big conclusion is that it’s going to be very tight

At last somebody’s talking about an area that could be decisive – the LAB-CON ground war capability gap in the battlegrounds

At last somebody’s talking about an area that could be decisive – the LAB-CON ground war capability gap in the battlegrounds

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Ex-Cameron aide: Tories will lose election | Public Affairs News http://t.co/SKeYQvS2B7. See pic.twitter.com/ReAVs6BtZN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015 The grassroots collapse that threatens the Tories In the article David Cameron’s former chief of Staff, Alex Deane, makes this observation and predictions about the general election: “”The basic scenario in this Parliament has been clear for a while and remains unchanged in 2015: UKIP up, dividing the right, Lib Dems down, uniting the left. This becomes stronger as the…

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David Herdson on “Cameron’s epic mistake re the Greens and the debates”

David Herdson on “Cameron’s epic mistake re the Greens and the debates”

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I love this pic from the 2010 debates (via @JohnRentoul ) pic.twitter.com/ZvjCYnhhOB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 8, 2015 The PM has just painted a huge target on his own back The Green Party is not the fourth party of UK politics and never has been so why is it treated by media and opponents alike as if it is? For most of the Greens’ history, the fourth party has been either the SNP or the dominant Unionist party in N…

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If the LDs experience is anything to go by then major party status for UKIP is bad news for the blues

If the LDs experience is anything to go by then major party status for UKIP is bad news for the blues

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Farage and Carswell pic.twitter.com/LN9BCE7d18 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 9, 2015 The chances of the purples fading must now be lower One of the features of general elections in recent times is that the Lib Dems always seem to get a boost during the campaign. Thus a 4-5% increase in their final share at the election compared with pre-formal campaign polls has almost been the norm. What has driven this is the extra attention they get from the broadcast media…

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