Al Murray’s South Thanet bid looks like an effort to stop Nigel Farage

Al Murray’s South Thanet bid looks like an effort to stop Nigel Farage

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@LordAshcroft polling from Thanet S where Al Murray plans to stand at GE15 He could have huge impact pic.twitter.com/FBmz8yhp7Y — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2015 What’ll this do the the UKIP leader’s bid to become an MP? Al Murray, the public school educated Oxford graduate, who has risen to fame as the Pub Landlord, launched his bid to take on Nigel Farage in Thanet South this afternoon. Given his popularity and the fact that he’s chosen Thanet South it does look…

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Cameron’s big mistake was not killing off the debates a year ago

Cameron’s big mistake was not killing off the debates a year ago

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As it is he either agrees or continues to be labelled “chicken” As an incumbent PM facing an opposition leader with as poor personal ratings as Ed Miliband’s it has been apparent for a long time that the best outcome for DC would be for no debates to take place. Why give Ed a platform that puts him equal with Dave? This is the more so now that Ofcom has deemed UKIP to be a major party and the threat…

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New Ashcroft 20k sample mega-poll highlights the massive challenge facing the Tories on the NHS

New Ashcroft 20k sample mega-poll highlights the massive challenge facing the Tories on the NHS

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Politicalbetting's Marf on the debate over the NHS pic.twitter.com/OJg40M2kU9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2015 LAB and EdM seen to be more concerned How important do you think the NHS is to the parties and leaders? pic.twitter.com/BCwUh9zN3g — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) January 14, 2015 Burnham’s comments resonating much more than Hunt’s How Andy Burnham comments on NHS resonating far more with voters than those of Health Sec Hunt @LordAshcroft poll pic.twitter.com/VgybOGbW85 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2015 Where…

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Dave’s approach to leaders’ debates gets the thumbs down from the ComRes sample

Dave’s approach to leaders’ debates gets the thumbs down from the ComRes sample

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Bu 55% to 23% voters tell ComRes that they think Cameron is being cowardly by trying to avoid the TV debates pic.twitter.com/TadhiK6HJs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2015 But what we don’t know is how salient an issue this is I am always a bit wary about polling like that featured above. Yes Mr. Cameron’s approach draws some negatives but does it actually matter? Isn’t the leaders’ debate issue just a concern that gets those within the “bubble” excited…

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After the confusing messages from the polls punters seem to be backing Ashcroft rather than Populus

After the confusing messages from the polls punters seem to be backing Ashcroft rather than Populus

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Tories up 4 & back at the high point on SportingIndex commons seat market. Now just 2 behind LAB pic.twitter.com/Y9ULu3648A — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2015 LAB majority on the Betfair exchange slumps to lowest level yet based on last trades. LAB 11.9% chance. CON 16.7% chance. NOM 71.5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2015 As a general rule CON backers most influenced by good news After yesterday’s Lord Ashcroft CON 6% lead poll and the Populus 5%…

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Exactly a year to go before the WH2016 primaries start and Senator Elizabeth Warren is moving into the frame

Exactly a year to go before the WH2016 primaries start and Senator Elizabeth Warren is moving into the frame

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The campaign to persuade Elizabeth Warren to run for President http://t.co/bXc3sWuggn pic.twitter.com/xERcLp7jlC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2015 Could she beat Hillary for Democratic party nomination Last night I had an 8/1 bet on Massachusetts Senator, Elizabeth Warren, to be the Democratic party nominee in next year’s White House race. She’s now second favourite in the betting and looks like she’d be a serious challenger if she decided to go for it. Until now the widespread assumption has been…

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