If @LordAshcroft polling right LDs could get 6 times the MPs as UKIP & 30 times the Greens on = or lower national vote share — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 21, 2015 It’s winning seats that matters not building national vote totals
ITV promotion 1st Debate April 2010 6/4 seems a good price on the PM not takink part On Monday I spent several hours in Westminster talking to key figures and attending the Robert Hayward briefing (see a previous post). One of the things I tried to get a sense of was the debates. Are these going to happen? The message I got was that those round Mr. Cameron are adamant that it is to the blue’s team’s advantage if the…
How STV is reporting its latest @IpsosMORI Scotland poll. http://t.co/yRmR2tpR5k pic.twitter.com/AlUAwPt6bs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 21, 2015 STV Ipsos-MORI phone poll in Scotland has SNP lead of 28% SNP 52% LAB 24% CON 12% LD 4% GRN 4% Murphy would lose — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 21, 2015 So three Scottish polls in four days SNP leads ranging from 10% to 28% – that is some difference — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 21, 2015 Are we seeing “shy unionists” like shy IndyRef NO voters? Would, I…
Marf on Clegg's assertion that Chilcot report on Iraq war being "sexed-down" pic.twitter.com/A6OuNgAACw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 21, 2015 Reminding voters of the conflict not good for the red team At PMQs today EdM opened by asserting that his party wants to Chilcot Inquire report to be published as soon as possible. Maybe but the he last thing, surely, that Labour wants in the run-up to May 7th is something to remind voters of the Iraq War although Ed…
Why DC is heading for Bedford. From Rob Hayward the GE2015 key seat change milestones on a uniform national swing pic.twitter.com/5iz6cWaLOL — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2015 One of the electors who won’t be taken for granted The above slide is from the Rob Hayward presentation and shows, on a uniform swing, the key tipping point seats. Column one is LAB to be on most seats, while the second column is the area for an overall LAB majority and…
Marf on Democracy day pic.twitter.com/coMtLMz6dY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2015 UPDATE YouGov gets its sensational poll. CON 2% ahead YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour at 5 year low, Greens at a new high. CON 32%, LAB 30%, UKIP 15%, GRN 10%, LDEM 8% http://t.co/qK4FVYbRro — Sun Politics (@Sun_Politics) January 20, 2015 So three pollsters now show Green surge Ashcroft 11% ICM 9% YouGov 10% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2015 Tonight's YouGov is the first CON lead with YoGov since Dec…
Greens jump 4 to 9% in latest ICM monthly phone poll. LAB 3 ahead. http://t.co/KlZttaT4N2 pic.twitter.com/qimcgSjTOv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2015 After yesterday’s poll from Lord Ashcroft showing the Greens on 11 percent there’s news this afternoon that ICM, the Guardian’s pollster, has the party on 9 percent – an increase of four points on last month. It really does appear that the row over the TV debates and general dissatisfaction with all of the main parties is…
SNP poll surge not being seen in post IndyRef Scottish local by-elections. Chart from Rob Hayward – election analyst pic.twitter.com/H6u35Btkfi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2015 Just compare that with the UKIP experience in England Yesterday I attended the annual media briefing by the respected elections analyst and former Conservative MP Robert Hayward. It was a packed and thought provoking session which will be reflected in the media in the coming weeks. There are a number of slides that…