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Remember 2005 when LAB and CON were level pegging on votes in England but LAB won 92 more seats

29/1/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

From the Commons Research paper on GE2005 pic.twitter.com/8loUiNhvCe — PolPics (@PolPics) January 25, 2015 There’s little to suggest that such a distortion won’t happen again The blue team has understandably found great cheer and encouragement in the latest polling from a range of firms. The race is undoubtedly getting closer in terms of votes but it’s seats that matter. One of the reasons why I’ve been highlighting England is because of what happened in the 529 seats being fought there…

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The build up starts to what will be the biggest polling event so far in 2015

28/1/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

@LordAshcroft teasing us ahead of his Scottish polling. pic.twitter.com/jHvjVMVJSM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 28, 2015 Ever since the first post-IndyRef Scottish polls came out showing a huge move to the SNP the standard assumptions that were being made about the GE15 outome were put on one side. For although in GB terms the the loss in the LAB vote and increase in the SNP one amounted to less than one percent overall the number of seats involved was enormous….

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A worrying trend for Ed Miliband’s team: Labour’s 2010 Lib Dem crutch is getting shorter

28/1/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Many ex-yellows are now going green Over the last two years we’ve been keeping a close eye on the group of swing voters who could have a big impact on the May 7th outcome – those who voted Lib Dem in 2010 but have now switched to Labour. In my latest calculation, for January, the number has dropped to a low point. This is not the sort of trend that you can easily discern from a single poll which is…

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Cracking New Statesman piece by Matthew Engel on betting & politics

28/1/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Great New Statesman piece from Matthew Engel on betting on politics http://t.co/jeYWfWkD4f A good read pic.twitter.com/zVIakviW4w — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2015 The full article is here. This is an extract that’s most relevant to PB “…The original purpose of both sides â€“ trying to make a profit on the transaction â€“ is certainly not absent. Indeed, in recent years it has become more central. At the heart of this phenomenon is a new class somewhat different from the blokes…

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And for the evening with 100 days to go – a Marf cartoon

27/1/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

POliticalbetting's Marf on Cameron & Miliband pic.twitter.com/ubW5s0VSyb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2015 If you would like to purchase one of Marfâ€™s prints or originals, please contact her here.

New betting market: How many cabinet ministers will lose their seats?

27/1/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Th Ashcroft Hallam poll pic.twitter.com/hupZ9psvka — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2015 The Ashcroft Kingston poll pic.twitter.com/CyxJ6idt75 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2015 The Ashcroft Loughborough poll pic.twitter.com/SHTXo7vpIx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2015 Betfair Sportsbook’s ever expanding range of new markets has got an interesting one up. How many of the current cabinet will lose their seats at the general election? 0 9/2 1 3/1 2 2/1 3 4/1 4 6/1 5 10/1 6 20/ 7 40/1…

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Survation test a constituency specific question in its new Mirror poll and get a slightly different outcome

27/1/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Wikimedia An unusual feature of the new Survation poll for the Daily Mirror is that, partly at my suggestion, it used the two stage voting question similar to that which we see in the Ashcroft marginals polling. After the standard one was put the sample was asked to think specifically about the candidates likely to be standing in their seats and which one would they choose. The options were not the parties but were in the format of “the XYZ…

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Tories take the lead with Survation for the first time in this Parliament – UPDATE – ComRes phone poll has the Tories ahead for the first time since Sep 2011

26/1/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

New @Survation online poll CON 31% (+1) LAB 30% (-3) UKIP 23% (+2) LD 7% (-3) GRE 3% (nc) SNP 5 (+2) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) January 26, 2015 The @Survation poll is the first Survation to put Con ahead in this parliament — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) January 26, 2015 This is the first in a series of monthly polling for the Mirror between now and the election. UKIP will be delighted to be in the 20s, albeit…

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