Is Lord Ashcroft the reason Nick Clegg is still leading the Lib Dems?

Is Lord Ashcroft the reason Nick Clegg is still leading the Lib Dems?

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Is @LordAshcroft the reason why Nick Clegg is still Lib Dem Leader? http://t.co/Ap8I4FAF2x pic.twitter.com/jw6panqrOX — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) January 29, 2015 If so, who will be more grateful? The Lib Dems or their opponents? One of most striking things of this parliament, is the Lib Dems’ unshakeable calm whilst the national opinion polls suggest in May the Lib Dems are headed for an epochal defeat that may end up being a modern Charge of the Light Brigade. We regularly get…

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Remember 2005 when LAB and CON were level pegging on votes in England but LAB won 92 more seats

Remember 2005 when LAB and CON were level pegging on votes in England but LAB won 92 more seats

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From the Commons Research paper on GE2005 pic.twitter.com/8loUiNhvCe — PolPics (@PolPics) January 25, 2015 There’s little to suggest that such a distortion won’t happen again The blue team has understandably found great cheer and encouragement in the latest polling from a range of firms. The race is undoubtedly getting closer in terms of votes but it’s seats that matter. One of the reasons why I’ve been highlighting England is because of what happened in the 529 seats being fought there…

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The build up starts to what will be the biggest polling event so far in 2015

The build up starts to what will be the biggest polling event so far in 2015

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@LordAshcroft teasing us ahead of his Scottish polling. pic.twitter.com/jHvjVMVJSM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 28, 2015 Ever since the first post-IndyRef Scottish polls came out showing a huge move to the SNP the standard assumptions that were being made about the GE15 outome were put on one side. For although in GB terms the the loss in the LAB vote and increase in the SNP one amounted to less than one percent overall the number of seats involved was enormous….

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A worrying trend for Ed Miliband’s team: Labour’s 2010 Lib Dem crutch is getting shorter

A worrying trend for Ed Miliband’s team: Labour’s 2010 Lib Dem crutch is getting shorter

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Many ex-yellows are now going green Over the last two years we’ve been keeping a close eye on the group of swing voters who could have a big impact on the May 7th outcome – those who voted Lib Dem in 2010 but have now switched to Labour. In my latest calculation, for January, the number has dropped to a low point. This is not the sort of trend that you can easily discern from a single poll which is…

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Cracking New Statesman piece by Matthew Engel on betting & politics

Cracking New Statesman piece by Matthew Engel on betting & politics

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Great New Statesman piece from Matthew Engel on betting on politics http://t.co/jeYWfWkD4f A good read pic.twitter.com/zVIakviW4w — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2015 The full article is here. This is an extract that’s most relevant to PB “…The original purpose of both sides – trying to make a profit on the transaction – is certainly not absent. Indeed, in recent years it has become more central. At the heart of this phenomenon is a new class somewhat different from the blokes…

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New betting market: How many cabinet ministers will lose their seats?

New betting market: How many cabinet ministers will lose their seats?

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Th Ashcroft Hallam poll pic.twitter.com/hupZ9psvka — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2015 The Ashcroft Kingston poll pic.twitter.com/CyxJ6idt75 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2015 The Ashcroft Loughborough poll pic.twitter.com/SHTXo7vpIx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2015 Betfair Sportsbook’s ever expanding range of new markets has got an interesting one up. How many of the current cabinet will lose their seats at the general election? 0 9/2 1 3/1 2 2/1 3 4/1 4 6/1 5 10/1 6 20/ 7 40/1…

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