Big polling news this afternoon – party leader ratings where Nick Clegg doesn’t come bottom

Big polling news this afternoon – party leader ratings where Nick Clegg doesn’t come bottom

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Farage has net -51% approval rating in Opinium 1st time voters poll – even worse than Clegg on -44 http://t.co/OUBxBC8ARG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2015 Amongst 1st voters LAB leads by 15% according to Opinium. GRN on 19% UKIP 3% pic.twitter.com/5qhZTsekae — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2015 The 15% LAB lead amongst 1st time voters from Opinium compares with LAB & CON level pegging with this age group at GE10 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2015…

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Remember Cameron’s early vote-Blue-go-green mantra?

Remember Cameron’s early vote-Blue-go-green mantra?

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Telegraph April 21 2006 http://t.co/ikt49rTSv7 pic.twitter.com/XCnmAIFVJr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2015 Now the Tory hope is vote Green get blue The pictures still remain a defining moment of his leadership: surrounded by a pack of huskies and against an Arctic backdrop, David Cameron pushing his vote-Blue-go-green message. It seems a long time ago and it is, almost nine years as the clock ticks and an era politically – before the Credit Crunch changed the entire political landscape. That…

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Anybody betting on two general elections this year should first read this analysis by Chris Huhne

Anybody betting on two general elections this year should first read this analysis by Chris Huhne

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The political and legal environment make it very difficult Nearly a year ago the former LD cabinet minister, Chris Huhne, wrote an excellent piece in the Guardian on how the Fixed Term Parliament Act would make it difficult for a second general election shortly after an indecisive outcome – as looks highly likely in May. ” The Fixed-term Parliaments Act means that the prime minister can no longer call an election at a time of his choosing. … Elections are…

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The mood of Tory optimism shows itself on the betting markets

The mood of Tory optimism shows itself on the betting markets

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On the Betfair exchange CON now clear favourites to win most seats With so any polls this week showing CON and LAB level-pegging or the blues ahead it’s inevitable that this was going to show on the betting markets. The money’s been going on them winning most seats and, as can be seen, there’s now quite a difference with the Labour price. In betting terms the last time CON was at these level was in the aftermath of Cameron’s EU…

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Henry G Manson’s 33-1 Sadiq for Mayor tip is looking better and better

Henry G Manson’s 33-1 Sadiq for Mayor tip is looking better and better

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Sadiq Khan moving up strongly amongst LAB supporters for London Mayor. YouGov/Standard http://t.co/lWsLmUKxQG pic.twitter.com/BF06QhfB2c — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 29, 2015 You can still get 4/1 on him for the nomination Back in March 2013 Henry G Manson tipped Sadiq Khan to be next London Mayor when the price was 33/1. Henry’s record on Labour matters is usually pretty good and I was amongst many who got on at that price. Henry’s reasoning was that Khan had, at the time,…

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Local By-Election Preview : January 29th 2015

Local By-Election Preview : January 29th 2015

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Marshalwick South on St. Albans (Two Conservative defences) Result of council at last election (2014): Conservatives 29, Liberal Democrats 17, Labour 10, Greens 1, Independent 1 (No Overall Control, Conservatives and Opposition tied) Result of ward at last election (2012): Conservative 929 (40%), Liberal Democrats 651 (28%), Labour 441 (19%), Green 188 (8%), UKIP 123 (5%) Result of ward at last election (2014): Conservative 972 (39%), Labour 573 (23%), Liberal Democrats 486 (19%), Green 258 (10%), UKIP 232 (9%) Candidates…

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Is Lord Ashcroft the reason Nick Clegg is still leading the Lib Dems?

Is Lord Ashcroft the reason Nick Clegg is still leading the Lib Dems?

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Is @LordAshcroft the reason why Nick Clegg is still Lib Dem Leader? http://t.co/Ap8I4FAF2x pic.twitter.com/jw6panqrOX — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) January 29, 2015 If so, who will be more grateful? The Lib Dems or their opponents? One of most striking things of this parliament, is the Lib Dems’ unshakeable calm whilst the national opinion polls suggest in May the Lib Dems are headed for an epochal defeat that may end up being a modern Charge of the Light Brigade. We regularly get…

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