The best betting strategy for tomorrow is do nothing till you’ve seen the numbers

The best betting strategy for tomorrow is do nothing till you’ve seen the numbers

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Totally between ourselves @LordAshcroft should I BUY or SELL SNP seats on the SportingIndex http://t.co/8brmIVQzQn pic.twitter.com/BP0lAU6Cd8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2015 At 11am tomorrow morning Lord Ashcroft’s Scottish single seat polls will be published and will get huge media attention. It is going to be an intensive period for political punters both on the constituency markets and the overall outcome ones. The best preparation is to look over your current commitments and have a plan of action depending…

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Latest YouGov makes it 8 consecutive polls without a CON lead but there’s more dire news for LAB from Scotland

Latest YouGov makes it 8 consecutive polls without a CON lead but there’s more dire news for LAB from Scotland

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Curtice in the Indy: GE15 "more about what kind of hung parliament we acquire rather than who can win a majority" pic.twitter.com/QSW8BK6QA5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2015 YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead by two: CON 33, LAB 35, LD 7, UKIP 14, GRN 6 — Sun Politics (@Sun_Politics) February 2, 2015 New YouGov Scotland poll has SNP 48 to LAB's 27% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2015 @MSmithsonPB mmmmm — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) February 2, 2015…

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The Liberals had held Montgomeryshire for all but 4 of the last 120 years – until Lembit sought re-election

The Liberals had held Montgomeryshire for all but 4 of the last 120 years – until Lembit sought re-election

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It’s 5/2 that they can re-take the seat At GE10 the incumbent MP who did worse than his party in any of the 650 seats was Lembit Opik in what for over a century had been a Liberal stronghold. At one stage during the last campaign you could have got 8/1 on the Tories taking the seat because it was seen as so much of a certainty. For a whole series of reasons Lembit’s antics in the years beforehand didn’t…

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Populus has LAB 3% ahead while Ashcroft has it level pegging

Populus has LAB 3% ahead while Ashcroft has it level pegging

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@LordAshcroft weekly national phone finds more people wanting change than staying with starus quo. Good for LAB? pic.twitter.com/qEjTrAsUUv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2015 ENGLAND ONLY shares in today's @LordAshcroft phone poll CON 34 LAB 30 LD 8 UKIP 17 GRN 10 In 2010 CON 11.4% ahead in England — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2015 A CON lead of just 4% in England could mean 45+ seat losses on a uniform swing. Tories need to be much closer to the 11.4% lead of 2010…

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Even though he’s projecting that LAB will lost three quarters of its Scottish MPs Baxter has the party 32 ahead overall

Even though he’s projecting that LAB will lost three quarters of its Scottish MPs Baxter has the party 32 ahead overall

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Latest from Electoral Calculus http://t.co/yOyYu1w1VO which includes SNP on 47 seats has LAB 29 short of majority pic.twitter.com/EPnC1vZ4hJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1, 2015 LAB drops 24 on the month The monthly prediction from the grand-daddy of general election prediction sites, Electoral Calculus, came out overnight and saw a sharp reduction in LAB seats reflecting the latest polling. Martin Baxter, the Cambridge and later City mathematician, has been running this for nearly 20 years and was one of the…

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Could my 50/1 bet on Liz Kendall being the next Labour leader be a winner in the next few months?

Could my 50/1 bet on Liz Kendall being the next Labour leader be a winner in the next few months?

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Is the 20/1 Liz Kendall really the favourite as the next Labour Leader? http://t.co/vvwklygK5o pic.twitter.com/1Jzucb6IXp — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) February 1, 2015 This afternoon it was reported that Liz Kendall has emerged as a new challenger in a future Labour leadership battle, exacerbating Ed Miliband’s difficulties as party leader. Although some Labour figures have dismissed the rumours around the Leicester West MP as “the Blair Witch Project,” she is emerging as a favourite among Blairite MP. Interest in the shadow…

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Labour ruling out ‘negative’ election campaign posters indicates an underlying problem for Labour

Labour ruling out ‘negative’ election campaign posters indicates an underlying problem for Labour

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A Tory election poster that was released earlier on this week. pic.twitter.com/WRXQx8YvBQ — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) January 31, 2015 The Observer is reporting that Labour has scrapped all plans to run billboard posters of David Cameron during the general election campaign in what it says it is a deliberate attempt to avoid “negative personalised adverts” and raise the tone of debate. But the most interesting excerpt from the article is this bit The Observer understands that Labour’s effort to occupy…

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The broad CON-LAB trend in the polls has barely moved since September

The broad CON-LAB trend in the polls has barely moved since September

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The broad CON-LAB trend in the polls has barely moved since September. Wiki chart http://t.co/XvWSExGrQ6 pic.twitter.com/PITg2ELZgm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2015 LAB take 3% lead in tonight's YouGov CON 32%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2015 Tonight's LAB YouGov share of 35% is highest of the year so far — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2015