Three months to go and focus moves to what should be good for LAB – the NHS

Three months to go and focus moves to what should be good for LAB – the NHS

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Ipsos-MORI Issues Index is unique in that those sampled are asked to name the issues without prompting. pic.twitter.com/eVkyN7LlTN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2015 Ipsos-MORI Issues Index: Where the huge jump in concern about the NHS has come from. pic.twitter.com/RDxV18G0Jl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2015 Ipsos-MORI Issus Index. How concern about NHS breaks down amongst different groups pic.twitter.com/ir0PP1pAsu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2015 This polling has been carried out in exactly the same way for…

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How MPs with bigger majorities are more likely to be non-locals and much less likely to be women

How MPs with bigger majorities are more likely to be non-locals and much less likely to be women

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Thanks to Ralph Scott (‏@ralphascott) of Demos for this interesting study of MPs ahead of the election. I suppose one reason is that in the more marginal seats there are likely to be more selection contests because there’s a much better chance that they will change hands at a general election. It is interesting that the one Tory cabinet minister who is most vulnerable in May is Nicky Morgan who sits for the LAB-CON battleground of Loughborough. Mike Smithson For…

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The January PB Poll Average – closing in on a double crossover?

The January PB Poll Average – closing in on a double crossover?

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The Tories and Greens are the month’s winners In the four and a half years since the general election, there’ve been four crossovers in the polls, blips excluded. Labour took the lead from the Conservatives in the autumn of 2010, the Tories briefly regained it following the EU Treaty veto at the end of 2011 before Labour recaptured the pole position in February 2012 which they’ve held since. A year later, UKIP overtook the Lib Dems for third and have…

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Local By-Election Preview : February 5th 2015

Local By-Election Preview : February 5th 2015

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Brimington on Derbyshire (Lab Defence) Result of council at last election (2013): Labour 43, Conservatives 18, Liberal Democrats 3 (Labour majority of 22) Result of ward at last election (2013): Labour 1,857 (69%), Conservatives 301 (11%), Liberal Democrats 250 (9%), Independent (Mullins) 175 (6%), Independent (Mann) 119 (4%) Candidates duly nominated: John Ahern (Lib Dem), Mick Bagshaw (Ind), Tricia Gilby (Lab), Lewis Preston (Con), Paul Stone (UKIP) Derbyshire has always been called a Labour heartland council (and yet despite that…

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Marf on the Ukaine crisis and NATO meeting

Marf on the Ukaine crisis and NATO meeting

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As NATO meets with the Ukraine crisis looking gives her take pic.twitter.com/lTiQD5g2xV — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2015 If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. My latest polling column for Betfair. http://t.co/j3YxTIDwdf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2015

The big difference between the UNITE and Lord Ascroft Hallam polls was the latter’s two stage voting question

The big difference between the UNITE and Lord Ascroft Hallam polls was the latter’s two stage voting question

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Response to Ashcroft first question Similar to Survation. The @LordAshcroft Sheffield Hallam poll before the 2nd seat specific question was put. pic.twitter.com/dXFjtA7d4l — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2015 Second stage when it’s candidates in specific seats The @LordAshcroft Hallam poll after the constituency specific question was put. LD ahead but not by much pic.twitter.com/GxfQ3SMnSO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2015 The overnight UNITE/Survation Sheffield poll which had LAB with a 9% lead highlights the very different approaches of…

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LAB most seats slips to just a 40% chance making it the best value GE2015 bet

LAB most seats slips to just a 40% chance making it the best value GE2015 bet

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Punters on Betfair exchange pile on CON most seats and LAB slips to a 40% chance pic.twitter.com/cQruKHRokl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2015 The fundamentals stay with the red team After yesterday’s Lord Ashcroft Scottish polling and last night’s YouGov recording a CON lead the money on the general election betting markets has moved to the Tories. The overall outcome is, of course, still for a hung parliament but CON most seats has now become a firmer favourite on…

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Clegg 10% behind LAB in Sheffield Hallam according to UNITE/Survation poll

Clegg 10% behind LAB in Sheffield Hallam according to UNITE/Survation poll

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UNITE poll carried out by Survation has LAB with 12% lead over Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam. LAB 33, LD 23, CON 22, UKIP 9 GRN 12 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2015 So after a dreadful day of polling for LAB the UNITE/Survation Hallam poll will come as some relief for EdM's team — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2015 The previous poll of Hallam, by Lord Ashcroft in December, had Clegg 3% ahead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…

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