UKIP drop into single figures, LDs 6% as LAB move to 36% in this month’s Ipsos-MORI poll

UKIP drop into single figures, LDs 6% as LAB move to 36% in this month’s Ipsos-MORI poll

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LAB @IpsosMORI lead 3% amongst all those giving voting intention. See chart pic.twitter.com/2AGeX5l9sz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 12, 2015 Feb @IpsosMORI poll Farage biggest loser on month in the satisfaction ratings pic.twitter.com/bnsz3oMq8e — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 12, 2015 LAB 36% share with @IpsosMORI is the highest the party has seen since April last year. In both Nov & Dec 2014 the firm had CON 3% ahead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 12, 2015 Unlike other pollsters @IpsosMORI headline…

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Ahead of what Ipsos-MORI is describing as a “corker” of a poll NOM moves to its tightest level ever on the Betfair Exchange

Ahead of what Ipsos-MORI is describing as a “corker” of a poll NOM moves to its tightest level ever on the Betfair Exchange

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No overall majority on the Betfair exchange moves to its tightest yet overnight rating at about an 81% pic.twitter.com/ja1zMp8hX1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 12, 2015 The Ipsos-MORI poll, for the Evening Standard, usually comes out between 1200 and 1400. As to the betting moves it is very hard to argue against. The pathways to both Tory and Labour overall majorities look very difficult based on what we know at the moment. But remember what Harold Macmillan used to describe…

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Tonight from Marf

Tonight from Marf

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Politicalbetting's Marf pic.twitter.com/77jftpUwgh — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 11, 2015 After yesterday's YouGov 2% LAB lead tonight's has CON 32 LAB 33 LD 7 UKIP 15 GRN 7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 11, 2015

Two useful guides from Professor John Curtice on linking vote shares to seats

Two useful guides from Professor John Curtice on linking vote shares to seats

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From John Curtice report for Electoral Reform Soc – the vote share targets for LAB & CON majorities pic.twitter.com/pXrz2cFwAj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 9, 2015 The John Curtice guide to what an SNP lead on votes in Scotland means in terms of LAB & SNP seats. pic.twitter.com/1TVrQ0eStM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 11, 2015 Both of these were in report produced by Professor Curtice for the Electoral Reform Society The big thing with the Tories is the LD battleground….

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So far the evidence that there’ll be a lot of tactical voting isn’t great but ground campaigning has yet to build up

So far the evidence that there’ll be a lot of tactical voting isn’t great but ground campaigning has yet to build up

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Opinium chart on tactical voting showing how Tory backers least likely to be making negative choce pic.twitter.com/Gz810cj5nA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 10, 2015 It’s a term that we hear all the time. Because we have first past the post the only way that those not supporting the two parties perceived to be on top locally can use their vote effectively is by switching to one that is in contention in order to stop another party. The theory is simple…

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Labour moves to its best ever position in YouGov’s “blame for cuts” tracker – now just 3% behind

Labour moves to its best ever position in YouGov’s “blame for cuts” tracker – now just 3% behind

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In October 2010 LAB was 30% behind. In the very early days of the coalition and the austerity programme in 2010 I singled out the YouGov “who’s to blame for the cuts” tracker as a good monitor – because placing the blame on the “past lot” has been such a key part of coalition rhetoric. It is one that I have gone back to regularly especially when milestones are reached. Back in October 2010 just 18% blamed “the coalition” and…

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The CON candidates who, allegedly, will be left out in the cold

The CON candidates who, allegedly, will be left out in the cold

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Extraordinary. What's alleged to be list of seats that CON is not targeting. http://t.co/Jd9kwMQ4Yp (via @Markpack) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 10, 2015 This is from Mark Pack. In this context “Non-target” means either ‘we’re not going to win’ or ‘we think this is super-safe’. Some are blindingly obvious others are less so. Ben Adams – Stoke-on-Trent North Bim Afolami – Lewisham Deptford Festus Akinbusoye – West Ham Heidi Allen – South Cambridgeshire Valerie Allen – Sefton Central Sue Arnold –…

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A bit of cheer for LAB as TNS Scotland poll has party just 10% behind

A bit of cheer for LAB as TNS Scotland poll has party just 10% behind

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Chart of latest TNS Scotland poll pic.twitter.com/MWOfWJoQbW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 10, 2015 Scottish general election polling – all the surveys this year. pic.twitter.com/mt4dtO7nN6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 10, 2015 Even though they are behind this poll will come as a relief to LAB Just out from TNS is the latest Scotland poll. The main GE voting figures are in the chart above and as can be seen the red team trail the nats by 10%. But that…

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