After six weeks of CON leads or them level-pegging today Lord Ashcroft poll has LAB 1% ahead

After six weeks of CON leads or them level-pegging today Lord Ashcroft poll has LAB 1% ahead

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Ashcroft National Poll, 13-15 Feb: CON 30%, LAB 31%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%, GRN 8%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm. — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) February 16, 2015 Now LAB go into lead for 1st time this year in this week's @LordAshcroft national phone poll pic.twitter.com/5i5Oh6Q6or — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2015 @LordAshroft national poll. Some good +ve numbers for LAB here an bad ones for Farage/UKIP pic.twitter.com/kpfuLCcXhB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2015 So what do we make…

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UPDATED: Marf on the Copenhagen shootings and the day’s 1st 2 polls – ICM CON 4% ahead

UPDATED: Marf on the Copenhagen shootings and the day’s 1st 2 polls – ICM CON 4% ahead

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Marf on the Copenhagen shootings pic.twitter.com/gUxVyMOQAU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2015 CON jump 6% in most sensational poll of 2015 Breakdown of ICM Guardian poll pic.twitter.com/sVyGcVPT0y — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2015 Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (-1), Con 31 (-), LD 10 (+1), UKIP 15 (+1), Others 11 (-1). Tables here: http://t.co/7TPAFeVZw3 — Populus (@PopulusPolls) February 16, 2015 NHS remains most important issue according to ICM/Guardian poll. Just 4% said Europe. . pic.twitter.com/zSpz8Mvhkx — Mike Smithson…

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Big question in blue-yellow battles is how much you can trust the Ashcroft 2 stage seat specific questioning

Big question in blue-yellow battles is how much you can trust the Ashcroft 2 stage seat specific questioning

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Illuminating observations from the inventor – UKPR’s Anthony Wells There’s a big debate going on over the Lord Ashcroft style two stage questioning in his single constituency polls of which there have been more than 150. It will be recalled that after asking the standard voting question he puts a second one suggesting that those sampled focus on their own seat and the candidates who might stand. The numbers that are highlighted are the responses to the latter not the…

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Labour are currently the largest recipients of tactical voting

Labour are currently the largest recipients of tactical voting

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Labour are currently the largest recipient of tactical voting via @IpsosMORI pic.twitter.com/PcWPbxY7El — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 15, 2015 As part of this month’s Ipsos-Mori political monitor found that 22% of Lab voters saying they do so to keep another party out, rather than because the party represents their views. For the Tories the figure is 10%, for UKIP it is 9%and the Liberal Democrat’s it is 7%. Ipsos-More note “In previous years, the Liberal Democrats were most likely to say they…

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The Next Tory Leader betting

The Next Tory Leader betting

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Given the current polling and lack of time and opportunities for the polling to change, it is likely Cameron and the Tories in a little under three months time will be out of Downing Street, which in all likelihood means there will be a vacancy at the top of the Tory party. The current favourite is Boris Johnson, in past Tory leadership elections it has been profitable to lay the favourite. Another reason for laying Boris will be if the…

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UPDATED: Opinium, ComRes and YoGov all have LAB retaining its leads

UPDATED: Opinium, ComRes and YoGov all have LAB retaining its leads

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The latest YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has CON 32 LAB 35 LD 7 UKIP 15 GRN 6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2015 LAB retains 2% lead in latest Opinium poll for the Observer LAB 35+1 CON 33+1 LD 8+1 UKIP 14-1 GRN 6-2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 14, 2015 ComRes IoS./S Mirror poll also has LAB 2 ahead CON 32% -1 LAB  34%= LD  7% = UKIP 16% -2 GRN  4% +1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 14, 2015 UKIP's share seems to have declined in most recent…

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Henry G Manson says that in past fortnight we’ve seen a different EdM with an effective gameplan

Henry G Manson says that in past fortnight we’ve seen a different EdM with an effective gameplan

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@Ed_Miliband kicks off by going with the tax avoidance issue pic.twitter.com/b7p8pp0pNC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 11, 2015 Why he’s becoming like tennis player Lleyton Hewitt at his prime It’s easy to look at British politics as though it were boxing. Journalists will often speak of whether there were any ‘knock out blows’ in Prime Minister’s. Instead I look at the it through the prism of sport I love, which PB old hands know is tennis. Of course there are…

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At this stage in 2010 bullish punters pushed the betting to a CON majority of 36 completely in defiance of the polling

At this stage in 2010 bullish punters pushed the betting to a CON majority of 36 completely in defiance of the polling

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3 months before 2010 election betting markets predicted Con maj 36 http://t.co/82hyWOedHW pic.twitter.com/wJNzaTFY06 Thx @MikeSmithsonPB — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) February 13, 2015 Are CON punters being grossly optimistic yet again? Last night John Rentoul asked me what had happened in the betting at this stage of the 2010 campaign and I dug up the above – an index that I created and reported regularly on here based on the spread betting and Betfair line prices. At this stage in the…

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