There’s no clear picture in England where 532 of the 650 Westminster seats are located

There’s no clear picture in England where 532 of the 650 Westminster seats are located

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How many of the CON 2010 gains can be retained? At the end of last year I started monitoring England only data from the main pollsters partly in response to the very different political environment that’s developed in Scotland. All the phone pollsters are providing this in their regular datasets as well as Survation and Opinium. It would be great if YouGov and Populus could follow suit. For if, as expected, LAB suffers major losses to the SNP in Scotland…

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Tonight’s cartoon from Marf (on Sir Malcolm of course) and the evening polling thread

Tonight’s cartoon from Marf (on Sir Malcolm of course) and the evening polling thread

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Marf on Sir Malcolm pic.twitter.com/aKlmQdU3MV — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2015 Two polls due this evening. Survation for the Mirror and the usual YouGov. They’ll be posted here as soon as they are out. Last month Survation had CON 31, LAB 30, LD 7, UKIP 23, GRN 3. Last YpouGov had CON & LAB tied. UPDATE LAB moves from 1% behind to 6% ahead in tonight’s Survation/Mirror poll Thee was a slightly smaller lead, check the third box on…

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Turnout’s going to be higher surely on May 7th – but how much higher?

Turnout’s going to be higher surely on May 7th – but how much higher?

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SPIN opens its GE15 turnout market with 70% the mid-point Sporting Index, which is sponsoring PB’s GE15 coverage, has put up a range of new spread markets including one on the turnout level. The opening spread is 69.7% – 70.3% making a mid-point of 70%. If you think that it is going to be higher then you bet on 70.3% and for every percentage point above that level you will receive your initial stake level. So if it was 73.3%…

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Betting that Farage won’t do it in Thanet South is starting to look like a good proposition

Betting that Farage won’t do it in Thanet South is starting to look like a good proposition

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The betting from Thanet South where Nigel Farage is hoping to become an MP pic.twitter.com/AyGbv138N9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2015 The 3 @LordAshcroft polls in Thanet South. LAB is competitive as well as CON & UKIP pic.twitter.com/EbWKFGNnYx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2015 If the edge is coming off the purples Farage might fail I’ve just caught up with the excellent BBC2 programme that was screened on Sunday night – “Meet the Ukippers” which focuses on Thanet…

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Another phone pollster, ComRes, has UKIP declining. CON lead up from 1 to 2%

Another phone pollster, ComRes, has UKIP declining. CON lead up from 1 to 2%

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The decline of UKIP from another pollster – ComRes phone poll for Mail CON 34 (+3) LAB 32 (+2) LIB 8 (=) UKIP 13 (-4) GRN 6 (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2015 ENGLAND ONLY shares from ComRes/Mail poll CON 36 LAB 32 LD 7 UKIP 14 GRN 9 A CON to LAB swing of 3.4% since GE10 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2015 So the second phone poll of the day is out and, like Lord Ashcroft this afternoon, shows UKIP on the decline. But unlike Ashcroft…

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Something to scare those who’ve been betting heavily on UKIP and the Tories winning most seats

Something to scare those who’ve been betting heavily on UKIP and the Tories winning most seats

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Purples drop 5 while LAB edges close to overall majority The weekly Ashcroft phone poll continues to surprise us. From being, until last week, the only pollster not to have recorded a LAB lead in 2015 the latest, published at 4pm, has the very best figures for LAB in a phone poll since the Guardian’s ICM poll in mid-December. For UKIP the fall is in line with the trend if not the scale recorded by other pollsters. It does seem…

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The polling week opens with LAB and CON level-pegging with Populus + Marf

The polling week opens with LAB and CON level-pegging with Populus + Marf

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After the Oscars and cash for access Marf gives her take pic.twitter.com/zQwWGcTx67 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2015 CON & LAB level-pegging in latest Populus Lab 32 (-), Con 32 (+1), LD 9 (-), UKIP 15 (-2) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2015 The last time that Populus had CON & LAB level-pegging was Dec 21st 2014. Then it was 35% each – today's poll 32% for both — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2015 There are more LAB…

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