The great methodology divide: All the CON leads are from phone polls – all but one of the LAB leads are from online surveys

The great methodology divide: All the CON leads are from phone polls – all but one of the LAB leads are from online surveys

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Greater certainty to vote amongst CON voters puts the blues back into the lead with Ashcroft The latest Ashcroft weekly phone poll is out and show a move back to CON and a 5% decline in the LAB vote. The figures and trend are in the chart above. The CON lead is almost totally down to turnout weighting. Before that was applied LAB was ahead by a small margin. Problem for them is that its voters are less certain to…

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If the early March polling this year is as good a pointer as March 2010 then the outcome is on a knife-edge

If the early March polling this year is as good a pointer as March 2010 then the outcome is on a knife-edge

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The above chart shows the CON lead in the polls from the first week in March 2010 and compares them with the actual election result nine and a half weeks later. As can be seen the polling at this stage proved to be a reasonably good pointer and in some cases better than the final polls. Of course past performance is no guarantee about what’s going to happen but it’s interest to look at. It is perhaps worth pointing out…

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Why framing constituency battles on choosing individual MPs is the best defensive strategy for the LDs

Why framing constituency battles on choosing individual MPs is the best defensive strategy for the LDs

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The widespread presumption that the election is about parties is not always applicable There is an almost total obsession that the vote on May 7th is about parties reinforced by the fact that almost all the polling asks WHICH you will be supporting rather than WHO. In fact for many voters the primary consideration is who will be their representative at Westminster not the party brand. This is why incumbency can be so important and the relationship that individual MPs…

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Nigel Farage hints at another Tory defection to UKIP

Nigel Farage hints at another Tory defection to UKIP

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Nigel Farage hints at another Tory defection to UKIP, who should you be betting on? http://t.co/0v2XsQ5Wga pic.twitter.com/Um7zgGX438 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 1, 2015 Today it is being reported Asked if he was in talks with Tory MPs about more defections, Mr Farage said: “The last time I spoke about this I said I would be surprised if there were not more. “There is one conversation we are still having. But do you know what – it is not very relevant…

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Operation Save Dave is unlikely to succeed

Operation Save Dave is unlikely to succeed

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Front page of the Sunday Times on Osborne's plans to try & keep Dave as leader if it is Con most votes/Lab most seats pic.twitter.com/x0hA3Y7dFB — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 1, 2015 The Sunday Times reports (££) George Osborne held a dinner with Conservative whips on Monday night to discuss tactics for the days after the vote on May 7. Two senior MPs revealed that Tory high command is preparing to argue that Cameron has won a “moral victory” if he…

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Tonight one poll has a 1% LAB lead – the other has them level-pegging

Tonight one poll has a 1% LAB lead – the other has them level-pegging

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The battle is still on a knife-edge CON & LAB level-pegging in tonight's YouGov CON 34% LAB 34% LDEM 8% UKIP 14% GRN 5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 28, 2015 Opinium poll for Observer LAB 35 CON 34 LD 6 UKIP 14 GRN 6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 28, 2015 The big message for the Tories as we go into the last two months and a bit is that they need to have emphatic leads across a range of pollsters to be…

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Marf on the murder of Boris Nemtsov and details of the pre-GE15 PB gathering

Marf on the murder of Boris Nemtsov and details of the pre-GE15 PB gathering

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Date for your Diary March 17th at 7pm The next PB get-together will take place on Tuesday March 17th from 7pm at the Shooting Star in Middlesex Street. As the map below shows this is just round the corner from our normal venue, Dirty Dicks. We are hoping that this will be less crowded and noisy than the pre-Christmas bash. Thanks to Fat Steve for finding the new venue. There are also plans for overnight May 7/8 – details soon.

LAB’s just reignited pensions as a battleground

LAB’s just reignited pensions as a battleground

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David Herdson says the tuition fees funding proposals could be skating on thin ice Elections are won on perceptions as much as realities: competence, trustworthiness, whether a person or party is ‘on my side’, and so on. It’s therefore brave of Labour to propose funding a cut in university tuition fees from taxes raised on pensions. In doing so, the unintended consequence of opening up a policy front on what ought to be a relatively strong policy subject for them…

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